1. Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Grain Market Update
Crop Advantage Series
Spirit Lake, Iowa
Jan. 11, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
146.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,310
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 28 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,453
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,792
4,600
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,054
12,605
Ending Stocks
848
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,046
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,275
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,625
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,300
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,045
Ending Stocks
230
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
11.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. South American Precipitation
Source: USDA-NASS & WAOB 8 8

9. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 1/10/2012

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Change of Export Pace

15. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2011
4.64
2012
4.86
2013
5.07
2014
5.29 15 15

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

17. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

18. Ethanol Blending Advantage

19. Biodiesel Production
Source: DOE-EIA

20. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

21. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

23. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

27. States with Room to Grow
Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

28. Iowa Crop Margins

30. Current Corn Futures
6.00
5.70
5.46
5.43
Source: CME Group, 1/10/2012

31. Current Soybean Futures
11.83
11.73
11.63
11.63
Source: CME Group, 1/10/2012

32. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops, worries about dry conditions
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.40; Soy $11.70
Futures (as of 1/10/12): Corn $6.00; Soy $11.73
2012/13:
Futures (as of 1/10/12): Corn $5.70; Soy $11.83

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: