1. Implications, adaptations & policies for economic development

2. Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

3. Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution
Implications for government revenue and GDP
Framework for adaptations
Win-win adaptations
Supporting policies

4. Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Future distributions of tuna are likely to resemble those during El Nino events today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)

5. Skipjack projection Vanuatu = +2 Vanuatu = +3 Vanuatu = -12
Unexploited
Fishing effort x 1.5

6. Implications of altered skipjack catch
Vanuatu’s two purse-seine vessels may eventually need to fish in the EEZs of nations further to the east – as they do now during El Nino events

7. Bigeye projection
2000
2000
Larval density
Adult biomass
2050
2050
GAINS TO VE MADE IN THESE COUNTRIES WHERE THE FISH MOVE EASTERN. So now I will tell u the fish move to the east and why
Good fishing grounds could be displaced further eastward

8. Implications of altered bigeye catch
2035
2050
2100
-3%
-6%
-10%
Possible slight reduction in catches and export from Vanuatu’s EEZ

9. Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Long-term Gain
Lose-Lose X
Lose-Win
Win-Win x
Near-term Loss
Addresses present drivers
Win-Lose
Near-term Gain
After Grafton (2010)

10. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated
La Niña
Ask
El Niño
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)

11. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly
Ask
2050 S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

12. Adaptations
Help develop and implement the VDS for the longline fishery

13. Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Immediate conservation measures for tuna
Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
maintain stocks at healthy levels
make these valuable species more resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna

14. Adaptations Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels
Addresses likelihood of near-term rises in fuel costs
Assists national fleets from west to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries
Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets
Photo: Bruno Leroy

15. Other adaptations
Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt
Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

16. Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to implement effort schemes
Adjust tuna management plans to increase flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna
Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC

17. Suggested supporting policies
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models
Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

18. Conclusions
Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities
Supporting policies are required
Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change