1. Scenario Development 2.0 Ulf Pillkahn Silke Sasano
Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Scenario Development 2.0
Corporate Technology Foresight Group
Ulf Pillkahn Silke Sasano

2. Introduction Scenario Development 2.0
The difficulty is that we are used toAssess the future against our plans

3. The motivation for foresight …
Scenario Development 2.0
The motivation for foresight …

4. Foresight: Expectations and Reality
Scenario Development 2.0
Foresight: Expectations and Reality
Foresight as …
… a never ending story

5. The 2nd Generation Scenario development process
… in a nutshell
Input side
(Information gathering)
Analysis (Information processing)
Output side (Transfer)

6. Representation of the changing environment (100%)
Scenario Development 2.0
The model of the changing world
The NEW
Representation of the changing environment (100%)
The CHANGING
The CONSTANT
Past
Today
Future
Time horizon
Before anticipating the future …
… the present should be described and … the mechanism of change understood !

7. The model of the changing world
Scenario Development 2.0
The model of the changing world
Before anticipating the future …
… the present should be described and … the mechanism of change understood !

8. The changing world, as we percept it.
Scenario Development 2.0
The changing world, as we percept it.
Change is more than just …
… trends and driving forces !

9. … powerful foresight instruments.
Scenario Development 2.0
Scenario Development
Scenarios are …
… powerful foresight instruments.

10. Environment ‘Outside-the-box’ Corporation ‘Inside-the-box’
Scenario Development 2.0
Introduction of Corporate Scenarios
Elements
Environment ‘Outside-the-box’
Corporation ‘Inside-the-box’
Paradigms
Stable, constant features, e.g. physical constants, pursuit of happiness
Reliable starting points, enterprise goals, principles, values and philosophies
Trends
Foreseeable change, e.g. societal aging
Clear change that may be welcome or unwelcome, e.g. outsourcing
Contradictions
Dilemmas (e.g. ‘Tragedy of the commons’) and differences of opinion
Mutually defeating efforts, e.g. team spirit versus measurements of personal performance
Uncertainties
Change whose further developments are unclear, e.g. scarcity of raw materials
Change whose further developments are unclear, e.g. enterprise culture, continuity
Chaos
Unpredictable wildcards, e.g. catastrophes
Surprising events, e.g. damage claims owing to defective products, hostile takeover
New
There must be something ‘new’ in the future. What could it be (for the environment) ?
Corporations regenerate and renew itself during periods of change. What will be new than (for the organization) ?
What works for the environment …
… also works for the organization!

11. Identify robust strategy paths … … and define trigger points!
Scenario Development 2.0
So what?
Identify robust strategy paths …
… and define trigger points!

12. Summary and Outlook The Future … … remains thrilling ! 1st Generation
Scenario Development 2.0
Summary and Outlook
1st Generation
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
Focus on changes
Based on forces and trends
Scenarios as combination of trends
Description of alternative paths in the future
Organization as black box
Introduction of a model for the changing world (constant, changing, new).
Introduction of future elements (constant, trends, uncertainties, contra-dictions, chaos, new).
Description of alternative paths in the future.
Introduction of Corporate Scenarios in order to address the changes in the organization.
Real-time scanning, monitoring and updating the ‘system’ with new information ???
Foresight as continuum ???
Foresight is integrated in Strategy Development of organizations ???
Increased reliability ???
???
Outlook
The Future …
… remains thrilling !