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The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP

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1 The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP Prof. Alan M. Haywood School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK Thanks to Harry Dowsett and the PRISM Team and the PlioMIP Advisory Group plus many more… Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

2 DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

3 Inspiration... DESERT STORMS
Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Inspiration... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

4 DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission To slight irritation.... CO2 change moderate compared to 21st century estimates Represents a long term steady-state not a transient style forcing Solution: PETM ideal analogue perturbation ? 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

5 Analogue Issues Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A.
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Analogue Issues 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

6 Analogue Issues MODERN: Annual mean Precip.
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Analogue Issues MODERN: Annual mean Precip. minus Evap. 2 × minus 1× PAL CO2 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS EOCENE: annual mean Precip. minus Evap. 2 × minus 1× PAL CO2 Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

7 So why the Pliocene? We have abundant geological data for the Pliocene
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission So why the Pliocene? We have abundant geological data for the Pliocene Pliocene CO2 concentrations were almost the same as today Continents were in their modern positions Pliocene ecosystems were similar to modern 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

8 Earth System Sensitivity
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Again... why the Pliocene? Climate Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience “The panellists were convinced of the utility of the Pliocene as a means to distinguish short and longer term climate/earth system sensitivity and associated ramifications for identifying a CO2 threshold that should not be crossed to avoid dangerous climate change”. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

9 Policy relevant tipping elements
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Policy relevant tipping elements 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Lenton et al. (2008). Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

10 Our insights and vision is from the data...
DESERT STORMS Our insights and vision is from the data... Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds 10

11 Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks...
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Annual mean temperature change (Pliocene minus Pre-Ind) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

12 Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks...
DESERT STORMS Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission CO2 Orog. 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Veg. Ice Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

13 Policy Relevant Examples
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Policy Relevant Examples 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

14 Ocean Circulation and Heat Transport
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Ocean Circulation and Heat Transport 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Ravelo et al. (2007) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds 14

15 Climate Variability/Oscillations
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Climate Variability/Oscillations 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Wara et al. (2005) Mg/Ca SSTs 5 Age (Ma)‏ 3 Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

16 High Latitude Climate/Polar Amplification
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission High Latitude Climate/Polar Amplification 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Ballantyne et al. (2011) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

17 Ice Sheets and Sea Level
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Ice Sheets and Sea Level 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS b Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

18 Elephant in the room - model dependency
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Elephant in the room - model dependency 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

19 Elephant in the room - model dependency
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Elephant in the room - model dependency 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

20 Looking to the future DESERT STORMS
Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Looking to the future 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

21 DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 4 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

22 Our job at this workshop... Prioritise those ideas
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Our job at this workshop... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Generate ideas Prioritise those ideas Deliver those ideas... Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

23 DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

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