2. GHG trends and projections for Annex I Parties
2nd session of AWG
Nairobi, Kenya
7 November 2006
GHG trends and projections for Annex I Parties
by Sergey KONONOV Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bonn, Germany
23 April 2019

3. The workshop addresses (FCCC/KP/AWG/2006/2):
Mandate
The workshop addresses (FCCC/KP/AWG/2006/2):
(a) Work by Annex I Parties on the scientific basis for determining their further commitments, including on scenarios for the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and on the implications of these scenarios;
(b) Emission trends for Annex I Parties, the mitigation potential of policies and technologies in different national circumstances, including experience gained so far, and the costs and benefits of emission reductions.
In line with the discussion area outlined, this presentation will:
Provide latest information on emission trends in Annex I Parties
Present preliminary data on GHG projections for Annex I Parties
The information is as officially submitted by Parties => structured as …
23 April 2019

4. Part 2: GHG projections to 2010–2020 Part 3: Data sheets for reference
Presentation outline
Data sources:
– 2006 submissions of national GHG inventories of Annex I Parties (available on unfccc.int),
– see also FCCC/SBI/2006/26
Part 1: GHG trends 1990–2004
Data sources:
– 4th national communications (NC4) and reports on demonstrable progress (RDP) of Annex I Parties (available on unfccc.int)
Part 2: GHG projections to 2010–2020
Part 3: Data sheets for reference
Same sources
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5. 1a. GHG trends (all AI Parties) 1990–2004 / 2000–2004
+11.0
–3.3
–36.8
1) All Annex I Parties: –3.3% (below 1990 level)
2) EITs: –36.8% / non-EITs: +11.0%
3) Since 2000, GHG emissions increased slightly, in total by 2.4%
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Note: The emissions are without LULUCF; data with LULUCF are available in the Appendices

6. 1b. GHG trends (KP Parties) 1990–2004 / 2000–2004
+3.7
–15.3
–37.0
1) All Annex I Parties: –15.3% (below 1990 level; below –5%)
2) EITs: –37.0% / non-EITs: +3.7%
3) Since 2000, GHG emissions increased slightly, in total by 2.9%
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Note: The emissions are without LULUCF; data with LULUCF are available in the Appendices

7. 2a. Shares in GHG total without LULUCF (all AI Parties)
2004 data:
increased shares of non-EIT Parties
1990 data
(special base years for 5 EITs)
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8. 2b. GHG trends 1990–2004 (without LULUCF)
Changes vary greatly: from –60.4% to +72.6%
In 22 Parties the emissions decreased; in 19 – increased
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9. 2c. GHG trends 1990–2004 (with LULUCF)
Changes vary greatly: from –160.5% to +62.2%
In 18 Parties the emissions decreased; in 16 – increased
For some Parties (e.g., Australia and Canada), changes “with LULUCF” differ considerably from changes “without LULUCF”
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10. 3a. Sectoral changes in GHG emissions (all AI Parties)
Sizable GHG reductions in industry, agriculture, waste
Increase in GHG removals by LULUCF (by 24.8 per cent)
Modest decrease for energy, only –0.4%: - increases in energy industries and, in particular, transport … =>
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11. 3b. Transport: challenge for GHG mitigation
Increase by 23.9%
Increase by 52.0%
Increase by 3.4%
1) Continuing GHG growth in transport - up to 23.9% in 2004
2) Upward trend for both domestic and international transportation
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Note: The emissions from transport do not include emissions in the Russian Federation because these emissions were reported in 2006 with notation keys only

12. 4. GHG emission and GDP: decoupling in process
GHG emissions (All Annex I Parties)
-5.6
2.4
-3.3
Change (%)
Change (%)
Change (%)
GDP (All Annex I Parties)
22.2
9.9
34.2
GHG/GDP (All Annex I Parties)
-22.7
-6.8
-28.0
Population (All Annex I Parties)
5.1
1.5
6.7
GHG/capita (All Annex I Parties)
-10.2
0.8
-9.4
1) GHG decrease from 1990 to 2004 has been combined with economic growth
2) “Decoupling” of emissions from economic growth continues after 2000
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Note: GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from Parties’ submissions under the UNFCCC

13. 5. Policies and measures: drivers behind GHG trends
Implemented/adopted P&Ms:
Energy-related: promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy, fuel switching to natural gas
Industrial processes: reductions in N2O from acid production, measures on fluorinated gases)
Waste: waste minimization and recycling, controlling emissions from landfills, waste incineration
LULUCF: sustainable forest management, afforestation and reforestation
Additional P&Ms:
Emission trading at national and international levels
Strengthening existing policies, e.g. on renewables / energy efficiency
New measures in transport, e.g. promoting biofuels
Promoting new technologies, such as carbon capture and storage
Use of flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
Additional measures in LULUCF
Policy background: economic growth, structural changes in economies, changes in population => important drivers behind emission trends
Policy development / strengthening in process (existing => add. measures)
Policy packages evaluated by Parties => projection scenarios => …
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Note: the type and number of policies and measures depend much on specific national circumstances of a Party; the approach to projecting policy impacts also differs from Party to Party

14. 6. GHG projections: tool to help the policy process
Projections submitted in 2005–2006 in NC4s and RDPs
Projections cover 39 Annex I Parties:
30 Parties: new projections from NC4 and RDP
8 Parties: older (NC3) projections
3 Parties: no projections data
Projection period: mostly to 2010 (not always 2020…)
Scenarios:
“with measures” (all 38 Parties): implemented and adopted measures
“with additional measures” (only 23 Parties): planned measures
not discussed: “without measures” (reported by few Parties)
GHG = sum of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Limited info => not covered yet in the current data
LULUCF projections (only a few Parties)
KP mechanisms and RMUs from LULUCF
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15. 6a. GHG projections (WM): All Annex I Parties
23 April 2019
Note: Projections data for individual Parties are available in the appendices

16. 6b. GHG projections (WM): Annex I KP Parties only
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Note: Projections data for individual Parties are available in the appendices

17. 6c. GHG projections: Impact of add. measures
Caveat: WAM not consistent with WM
(23 Parties only, not 38) =>
additional data or assumptions needed… ?
23 April 2019
Note: Projections data for individual Parties are available in the appendices

18. Summary
The following has been presented based on the latest available information:
Trends in GHG emissions from 1990 to 2004:
without LULUCF
with LULUCF
GHG projections (without LULUCF) for the period up to 2010 and, less accurately, 2020:
scenario “with measures” for 38 Parties
scenario “with additional measures” for 23 Parties (limited info)
Additional numerical information is available in:
FCCC/SBI/2006/26
appendices to this presentation (more detailed data on GHG trends and projections)
23 April 2019