1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-service
Nashua, Iowa
May 20, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,140
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
759
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
14,924
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,325
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,600
4,850
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,385
1,445
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
750
1,300
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,135
12,920
Ending Stocks
2,004
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
77.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,390
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
3,530
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,635
1,695
Seed & Residual
110
130 90 95
120
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,350
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
3,264
Ending Stocks
265
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Emergence Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Yields
Year with planting progress like this year

7. Corn Yields
Weather analog year, 1947

8. Soybean Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Soybean Yields
Year with planting progress like this year

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks

21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

23. Current Corn Futures
4.94
4.99
Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013

24. Current Soybean Futures
11.59
11.52
Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013

25. New Crop Prices

26. Corn Prices vs. Costs

27. Soy Prices vs. Costs

29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

30. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

31. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Planting progress or lack thereof
Old crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly
Corn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered slightly
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(5/16/13)
Corn
$6.90
$4.70
$4.94
Soybeans
$14.30
$10.50
$11.59

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: