1. Looking Back, Looking Forward
ISU EO ANR In-Service
Ames, Iowa
Apr. 3, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Crop Prices
Drought
Exports
Recession
Ethanol

3. Crops
Livestock 3 3

4. Crop Prices

5. Farm Bill: Old vs. New Direct Payments (DP)
Countercyclical Payments (CCP)
Marketing Loans (LDP)
Revenue Countercyclical Payments (ACRE)
Countercyclical Payments (PLC)
Marketing Loans (LDP)
Revenue Countercyclical Payments (ARC)
New programs, but they have strong similarities to previous programs

6. PLC: Price Protection

7. ARC: Revenue Protection

8. Producer Choice
The red line is the ARC-County payment trigger. ARC payments are triggered when the combination of price and yield is below and to the left of the red line.

9. Summary
Strong production and slowing growth in demand have crop prices weakening.
Crop margins are projected to be at or below zero for the next few years.
Production and price risk management is crucial.
The new farm bill provides tools for risk management, but producers will have some tough choices to make.