1. The Economics of Regional Growth
Jeffrey H. Dorfman
The University of Georgia

2. Outline Economy of Atlanta and Georgia Current Regional Issues
Future Regional Issues
Policies Needed to Get/Stay on Track

3. Outline Economy of Atlanta and Georgia Current Regional Issues
Future Regional Issues
Policies Needed to Get/Stay on Track

4. Atlanta’s Industries No dominant industry.
Atlanta lost a lot of technology jobs after the internet bubble popped.
Georgia is the 4th fastest growing state.
Have lots of corporate headquarters.
Have lots of research universities/CDC.

5. Atlanta’s Industries

6. Atlanta’s workforce Atlanta is considered a good business city.
Workforce is 2 million +
Population and job growth are forecast to slow.
Still #1 in US for single family home permits.
111,700 new people from Apr ’05-Apr ’06.
Atlanta is growing again (yeah!!).

7. Atlanta’s buying power
Low cost of living.
Average home price approx $250,000.
Low taxes.
Together, this means consumers in Atlanta have good buying power.
This keeps labor costs low for businesses.

8. Economics and Land Use
How does land use connect to the state of Atlanta’s and Georgia’s economy?
Land prices determine business location decisions.
Land prices determine home prices.

9. Economic Benefits of Farm and Forest Lands
These lands produce valuable products for consumers, generate jobs and tax revenues
1/6 of all jobs and gross state product in GA
These lands attract businesses and families
These lands also provide a net surplus to local government finances

10. Economic Benefits of Green Space
Green spaces increase property values of surrounding land
Green and open spaces can provide environmental amenities for free
If green spaces contribute to quality of life, you attract people and jobs to community

11. Outline Current Regional Issues Economy of Atlanta and Georgia
Future Regional Issues
Policies Needed to Get/Stay on Track

12. The Big Regional Issues
Water
Air
Transportation
Land Use

13. Water Supply – 652 mgd, 72% from the Chattahoochee
Demand – seems to at least match the supply, more in the summer,
Demand will grow with population, but supply doesn’t (does growth have to stop?)

14. Water – Demand Uses

15. Air Smog/non-attainment Highway funding Emission checks on cars
Human health impacts
Key economic issues are highway funds and compliance costs

16. Transportation/Traffic
Commute stats vary (bad to average)
The stories about Atlanta having the worst commute in the country are not really true.
Worse to better ???
The commute appears to be improving, maybe because some people are moving back to Atlanta and jobs are moving out to the people.

17. Transportation/Traffic
Smaller demand than many think on public dollars.
State spends 3.4% of budget on transportation.
This is supplemented by $2 federal for each $1.
Road connectivity is poor.
This means trip times increase, air quality decreases, and it is very hard to retrofit.

18. Jobs, Commuting, and Home
31% if workers in Rural South work in a different county than where they live.
52% of employment growth in metro areas was from in-commuters.
27% of employment growth in rural areas was from in-commuters.
jobs ≠ housing growth
Source: Mitch Renkow, NC State

19. The Missing Economics We use lots of water because it is cheap.
We pollute the air because it is free.
We drive a long way because the tradeoff in homes, yards, and schools is worth it.

20. Land Use
Land use patterns affect taxes which impacts business location and hiring decisions.
Land use has a big impact on quality of life.

21. Revenues to Cost by Land Use
Using results compiled by AFT, the national averages are:
Residential: $0.87
Commercial/Industrial: $3.45
Farm/Forest/Open: $2.70
These figures are $’s of revenue for each $1 of expenditures.

22. Some Southeastern US Results Revenue:Expenditure Ratios

23. What do the $’s mean per acre?

24. Land Use Economics Issues
LCI
Transit
Affordable housing
Choices

25. How to Change the Numbers
Cost of service goes down by 50% of land savings (use half the land, save 25%).
Avoid leapfrog development.
Build where infrastructure already exists (infill is much cheaper than extensive growth).
Multifamily is less expensive per unit until density gets very high.
Design so service costs are low.

26. Economics of Land Use
The ways to change the numbers sure sound a lot like the LCI concept
Commutes would be short
Density would be higher
Sometimes done as infill or redevelopment

27. Economics of Land Use Transit
Light rail and/or commuter rail is a huge waste of money.
Spending money on improving roads is iffy if you think it will reduce traffic congestion.
People are moving back into Atlanta because the traffic is bad
That is a good thing (which will help traffic).

28. Economics of Land Use
Affordable Housing is a fiscal drain on local government.
However, a healthy economy can afford to pay the burden.
Ex: Athens-Clarke County found that 1,000 affordable houses ($100,000 average price) would raise the average homeowner’s property taxes by $4/year.

29. Economics of Land Use Choices
The most important thing is to promote building and zoning codes that allow choices.
Don’t force people to do things one way (like with minimum lot sizes).

30. Outline Future Regional Issues Economy of Atlanta and Georgia
Current Regional Issues
Future Regional Issues
Policies Needed to Get/Stay on Track

31. Future Regional Issues
Probably same big 4
Water
Air
Transportation
Land Use
Big difference is that more people will be living here.

32. Future Regional Issues
Possible new issue is public education.
Public education is too expensive for direct taxation.
System works because businesses pay school taxes. If population grows relative to business ….

33. School Funding in Atlanta Break-even Home Values (3/4 kids/house)

34. Outline Policies to Get/Stay on Track Economy of Atlanta and Georgia
Current Regional Issues
Future Regional Issues
Policies to Get/Stay on Track

35. Policy Choices and Outcomes
Tools exist
Choices determine sprawl, character, and cost of living
Regional revenue sharing is not worth talking about.

36. Development Patterns
Development patterns have an impact on the cost of service delivery: sprawl is expensive to service.
The same growth done more densely and contiguously saves both money, farmland, and provides environmental amenities.
New Jersey, South Carolina, California studies

37. Possible Government Tools
Zoning
Standards
Impact fees
Incentives (time, approval, differential fees)
TDRs
PDRs
Time
Infrastructure

38. Conclusions Economics is at the heart of many of region’s issues.
Until different behavior makes economic sense, we are likely to stay on our current path.

39. Other Resources
To see similar slides to those printed here and other graphs, reports, and resources on the economics of growth and land use, you can use the web at: or
landuse.uga.edu