1. Reflections on the List of Occupations in High Demand
14 March 2019
Vijay Reddy
Bongiwe Mncwango
Michael Rogan
Sybil Chabane

2. Publications: http://www.lmip.org.za/ http://www.dhet.gov.za/

3. Background:
As part of the skills planning mechanism, government, and in particular the Post-School Education and Training (PSET) System, needs to understand, which occupations are currently in shortage, and which occupations will be needed in the future, particularly to enable the rollout of government’s strategic plans.
DHET has published OIHD 2014 and OIHD 2016.
DHET requested LMIP construct the OIHD 2018 list with a strengthened methodology.

4. Objectives:
Incorporating a multidimensional index of occupations which are in high demand
Identify new dimensions and data sources for measuring high demand occupations (NQF3 and above- OFO 4 digit)
Identify high, medium and low demand occupations in South Africa
Combining a quantitative and qualitative approach
Building on:
UK’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) framework
OECD’s Skills for Jobs Indicators

5. The MAC and OECD approaches:
Dimension
Indicator
Wage pressure
Hourly wage growth
Employer- based
Percentage of skill-shortage vacancies/
employment by occupation
Employment pressure
Total employment growth
Percentage of skill-shortage vacancies/all
vacancies
Unemployment rate (in previous occupation)
Percentage of skill-shortage vacancies/hard-to-fill
Growth in hours worked
Price-based
Percentage change in median hourly pay for all
employees
Talent pressure
Underqualification growth
Percentage change in mean hourly pay for all
Relative premium to an occupation, given NQF3,
controlling for region and age
Volume- based
Percentage change in unemployed by sought
occupation
Percentage change in hours worked for full-time
Percentage change in employment
Absolute change in proportion of workers in
occupation less than one year
Administrative data- based
Absolute change in median vacancy duration
Stock of vacancies/claimant count by sought

6. Conceptualising four dimensions:
• Wage pressure- upwards wage pressure over time is one characteristic of occupations for which demand is high (and is currently or is likely in the future to outstrip supply)
• Vacancy pressure- the persistence and/or duration of vacancies over time is often interpreted as a signal of occupational shortage
• Employment pressure- on its own, employment growth is a sign of demand being met but, combined with employment intensity and turnover, employment pressure can be a signal of occupational demand
• Priority/strategic demand- it is increasingly being acknowledged (see NILS, 2013) that sectoral and governmental priorities and strategic plans should be included in measuring occupational demand

7. Dimension Data source Indicator Threshold Weight
Framework for the 2018 List of Occupations in High Demand (OIHD)
Dimension
Data source
Indicator
Threshold
Weight
Wage pressure
QLFS/ LMDS
Hourly mean wage growth
Change in mean hourly earnings above the median between 2010 and 2015.
1/12
Hourly median wage growth
Change in median hourly earnings above the median between 2010 and 2015.
Conditional hourly mean wage growth
Change in the conditional mean hourly wage above the median between 2010 and 2015.
Vacancy pressure
JOI/CJ
Vacancy growth
Change in vacancy growth above the median in the JOI or Career Junction (CJ) listings.
1/8 CJ
Vacancy duration
Change in vacancy duration above the median in the CJ listings.
Employment pressure
QLFS
Employment growth
Change in employment growth above the median between 2010 and 2015.
Employment intensity growth
Change in employment intensity above the median between 2010 and (hours worked by full-time workers)
Employment tenure
Change in proportion of employees with tenure of less than one year above the median between 2010 and 2015.
Priority/ Strategic
Demand
SETA Pivotal List
Strategic sectoral priority
Occupation appears on the SETA Pivotal List.
SIPs list
National priority
Occupation appears on the SIPs List.

8. Outcome: 286 occupations with a score above zero.
The median value for these occupations was in other words, there were 143 occupations with an index score greater than 0.25 (k) (or occupations which reflected demand in more than 25% of the weighted indicators).
These 143 occupations were then grouped into three mutually exclusive categories denoting high, higher and highest demand (based on their individual index scores) using a mean clustering analysis

9. Qualitative:
What: national call for evidence, literature review, interviews with industry stakeholders, policy review
add context and texture to the quantitative list of 143 OFO 4 digit occupations
extend the list to the 6 digit occupational level
justify the inclusion and exclusion of occupations

10. RESULTS

11. Top 25: Statistical only:
OFO 
OIHD Index Score
1331. ICT Service Managers
6712. Electrical Mechanics & Fitters
1211. Finance Managers
0.625
1323. Construction Managers
3123. Construction Supervisors
1321. Manufacturing Managers
1349. Professional Services Managers nec
2331. Secondary or Intermediate & Senior Education Teachers
2519. Software & Applications Developers
3118. Draughtspersons
2141. Industrial & Production Engineers
2142. Civil Engineers
3112. Civil Engineering Technicians
3115. Mechanical Engineering Technicians
4221. Travel Consultants & Clerks
6711. Building & Related Electricians
1112. Senior Government Officials
0.5
1219. Business Services & Administration
1311. Agricultural & Forestry Production
2149. Engineering Professionals nec
2341. Primary School or Foundational Phase Teachers
2412. Financial & Investment Advisors
2619. Legal Professionals nec
3512. Information & Communications Technicians
3521. Broadcasting & Audio-visual Technicians

12. Sources of Occupational Demand for Occupations in the Highest Group

13. Consolidated list of occupations at 4 and 6 digit level
HIGHEST
Occupation
OFO Code
1112. Senior Government Officials
General Manager Public Service
111202
Senior Government Official
111204
Senior Government Manager
111207
1211. Finance Managers
Chief Financial Officer
121101
Finance Manager
Management accountant
Payroll Manager
121102
Credit Manager
121103
Internal Audit Manager
121104
1219. Business Services & Administration
Corporate General Manager
121901
Corporate Services Manager
121902
Physical Asset Manager
121903
Contract Manager
121904
Programme or Project Manager
121905
Labour Recruitment Manager
121907
Quality Systems Manager
121908
Sustainability Manager
121909
1221. Sales & Marketing Managers
Sales and Marketing Manager
122101
Sales Executive
122102
Sales Manager
Director of Marketing
122103
Interactive and Direct Marketing Strategist
122104
Client Services Advisor
122105

14. Future directions: More in-depth qualitative research
Wider qualitative approach (both private and public sectors)
‘Staggering’ the top-down and bottom-up approaches
Reflections:
Who uses the list and how?
How can participation be improved?
What does the list tell us about the current and future needs of the labour market?

15. THANK YOU