1. Garden City Union Free School District
Demographic & Enrollment Overview
March 6, 2019
Western Suffolk BOCES
Office of School Planning and Research

2. Office of School Planning & Research
Since 1985, have completed more than 1,000 studies
Studies have been completed for districts in Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and other New York State counties
Nassau County districts include Bethpage, Herricks, Plainview-Old Bethpage, North Shore, Jericho, East Meadow, Lynbrook, Farmingdale, Seaford, & Baldwin

3. What is involved in a study?
Demographics
Births
Housing
Population
Non-Public Enrollment
Enrollment
Trends over past 10 years
Migration from grade to grade
Birth Persistence Analysis

4. Research Sources Include the following – but not limited to….
U.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey (U.S. Census)
American Fact Finder (U.S. Census)
New York State Education Department
New York State Department of Health
New York State Office of Real Property Services
National Center for Health Statistics
U.S. Department Of Housing & Urban Development
Pew Research Center
Local Planning Boards
School District Records

5. Accuracy of Projections
Overall enrollment projections produced by Western Suffolk BOCES generally fall within a 4 percent margin of error.
Projections based on students already enrolled in the system are the most reliable.
Projections based on documented births are slightly less reliable.
Projections based on estimates of future births are the least reliable.
The most reliable projections are those calculated for the periods closest in time, particularly for the first five-year period.

6. Accuracy of 2016-17 WS BOCES Projections for 2018-19
Enrollment

7. Demographics

8. Garden City UFSD Population
Increased by 3.1 % (669 people) between
Increased by 2.0 % (443 people) between

9. Garden City UFSD - Age Structure% %
2016* - %
Under 5
6.6
5.3
5.6
5 –19
22.9
25.7
24.2
20 – 39
19.3
16.1
17.5
34.4
36.4
35.4
65 +
16.8
16.5
17.2
Median Age
n/a
42.2 years
42.6 years
Nassau County median age: 41.4 years
* American Community Survey Estimates

10. Nassau – Suffolk Births: 1996 - 2016

11. Garden City UFSD School District Births: 2003 - 2016
184
2017 & 2018 school district birth data is not yet available

12. Garden City UFSD Housing Sales: 2006 - 2017
2018 housing data is not yet complete

13. Garden City UFSD Median Home Sale Prices: 2006 - 2017
2018 housing data is not yet complete

14. Proposed Housing in the Garden City UFSD
555 Stewart Avenue:
150 luxury apartments (15 affordable):
20 one-BR, 115 two-BR, 15 three-BR
On July 10, 2018, the Village of Garden City approved a special use permit to construct the project
The development is geared to young professionals and empty- nesters and is not expected to generate a significant number of school aged children.
Statistics on “trickle-down” effect (impact of senior buyers selling homes to young families) are not available

15. Enrollment

16. Garden City UFSD Enrollment: 2008 – 2023

17. Kindergarten Enrollment: 2008 – 2023

18. Garden City UFSD Enrollment Change
Grade Configuration
Students Gained or Lost
K - 1
+6 (+1.0 % )
-65 (-10.2 %)
2 - 5
-183 (-13.8 %)
+156 (+13.6%)
6 – 8
-156 (-14.7 % )
+96 (+10.6 %)
9 - 12
+20 (+1.7 %)
-124 (+10.4 %)
Total
-313 (-7.5 %)
+63 (+1.6 %)

19. District Enrollment will be Impacted by:
On average, the district gains or maintains students in progression to most grades; the exception is ninth grade, where there are significant losses in transition as students transfer to non-public schools.

20. Garden City UFSD Migration Losses: 8th - 9th Grade
Year
8th grade
9th grade
Loss
Migration Ratio - %
352
282 70
80.1
353
290 63
82.2
354
305 49
86.2
334
286 48
85.6
318
274 44
316
265 51
83.9
312
278 34
89.1
355
310 45
87.3
331
300 31
90.6

21. Garden City UFSD Projected Elementary School Enrollment
Actual
2018
Projected
2023
Students
Gained/Lost
Hemlock PS (K – 1)
220
197
-23
Homestead PS (K – 1)
249
225
-24
Locust PS (K – 1)
166
148
-18
Stewart ES (2 – 5)
577
653
+76
Stratford ES (2 – 5)
570
650
+80
Total
1,782
1,873
+91

22. Garden City UFSD Projected Elementary Sectional Needs
School
Actual
2018
Projected
2023
Difference
Hemlock PS (K – 1) 11 10 -1
Homestead PS (K – 1) 12
Locust PS (K – 1) 9 7 -2
Stewart ES (2 – 5) 26 31 +5
Stratford ES (2 – 5) 25 29 +4
Total (K – 5) 83 88

23. Summary
Enrollment has decreased by 313 students during the ten-year historical period; however, a gain of 49 students is noted since 2016.
District enrollment is forecasted to increase by 68 students during the next five years. However, losses are projected in the primary and high school grades, while gains are projected in the intermediate and middle grades.
The resident population within the district is expected to grow slowly; however, recent increased housing turnover is expected to continue to bring younger families with children into the district.