1. Grain Marketing and Risk Management Update
28th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar
Dubuque, Iowa
Oct. 29, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
174.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
14,475
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,236
Imports 28 29
162 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,782
15,736
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,329
5,125
5,375
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
5,130
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,403
1,374
1,405
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,546
13,655
Ending Stocks
2,081
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
84.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
39.8
44.0
47.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,358
3,927
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 36 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,570
4,034
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,770
Seed & Residual
130 88 90 98
113
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,647
1,700
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,478
3,583
Ending Stocks
450
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Corn Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Soybean Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Current Corn Futures
3.81
3.47
Source: CME Group, 10/24/2014

21. Current Soybean Futures
9.63
9.44
Source: CME Group, 10/24/2014

22. 2014/15 Crop Margins

23. 2015/16 Crop Margins

24. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Projected record corn and soybean crops
Markets have adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
Cool, wet conditions may hamper harvest and impact crop quality
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(10/24/14)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.40
$3.47
$3.81
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.00
$9.63
$9.44

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: