1. Game 1 The P-beauty Contest
Game Theory
Game 1
The P-beauty Contest

2. P-Beauty Contests

3. Levels of Rationality

4. Class Strategies

5. Levels of Rationality 2-3 Penn (Wharton) Students
Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees
US High School Students

6. Levels of Rationality 2-3 Penn (Wharton) Students
Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees
US High School Students
UConn

7. Levels of Rationality 2-3 3 Penn (Wharton) Students
Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees
US High School Students
UConn
Cal-Tech undergrads

8. Results
Average Number:
¾ of Average:

9. Closest
Alex (29)
Tyler (31)
Top ten between 25 and 39

10. Furthest
One person picked 77

11. Furthest
Adam picked 75
Connor picked 75

12. I’m Rational (But the Rest of You Aren’t)
Picked 0
Xue
Lizzie
John

13. Predictability
Winning number:

14. Predictability
Winning number:
Winning number 2018:
Winning number 2016:
Winning number 2015:
Winning number 2014:
Winning number 2013:

15. Summary Common knowledge is bunk Bounded rationality is not
Must understand how far the reasoning of other players will go
People generally think two to three steps ahead (The rule of three)
Need to stay one step ahead
Don’t be too clever