1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Crop Advantage Series
Fort Dodge, Iowa
Jan. 18, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,060
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,355
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,465
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,131
5,600
5,500
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,325
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,429
1,435
1,440
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,950
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,585
14,215
Ending Stocks
2,250
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.30
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
85.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
47.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,050
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
420
Imports 72 33 24 25 30
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,500
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,930
1,935
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
130
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
2,100
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,108
4,165
Ending Stocks
336
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.50
9.35
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Corn Production
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Production
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 8 8

9. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 9 9

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

21. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

22. Current Corn Futures
4.06
3.92
3.56
Source: CME Group, 1/17/2017

23. Current Soybean Futures
10.04
10.02
9.56
Source: CME Group, 1/17/2017

24. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

25. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

26. 2017/18 Crop Margins

27. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

28. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: