2. Matakuliah : J0562 / Management
Tahun : 2010
Decision Making : The Essence manager’s job Pertemuan 03 (Thrid Meeting)

3. Learning Outcome Student should be able to explain
The decision making process, the manager
As decision maker -> C3

4. Learning Outline The Manager as Decision Maker
The Decision Making Process
The Manager as Decision Maker
Decision Making for Today’ World

5. The Decision Making Process
Identification of a problem
Identification of Decision Creteria
Alocation of Weights to Creteria
Development of Alternatives
Analysis of Alternatives
Selection of an Alternatives
Implementation of the Altrnatives
Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness

6. Decision
Choice from two or more alternatives
Decision-making
Decision-making Process
A set of eight steps that include identifying a problem, selecting an alternatives, and evaluating the decision’s effectiveness
Problem
A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs
A decision-making process begins with the existence of a problem

7. Step 1 : identifying a Problem step 2 :identifying decision criteria step 3 : allocation weights to creteria step 4 : developing alternatives step 5 : analyzing alternatives step 6 : selecting an alternative step 7 : implementing the alternative step 8 : evaluating decision effectiveness
My sales reps need new computers!
Memory and storage 10
Display quality 3
Battery life 8
Warranty 4
Carrying weight 6
Toshiba , HP, Sony, Dell, Apple, lenovo
Assessed values of laptop computers using decision criteria and next evaluation of laptop alternatives against weighted creteria
Toshiba *
Toshiba
Evaluation

8. The Manager as Decision Maker
Leading
How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation ?
What is the most effective leadeership style in a given situation ?
How will a specific change affect worker productivity ?
When is the right time to stimulate conflict ?
Controlling
What activity in the oganization need to be controlled ?
How should those activities be controlled ?
When is a performance deviation significant ?
What type of maangement information system should the organization have ?
Planning
what are the organization’s long term objectives ?
What strategies will best achive those objectives ?
What should the organization’s short term objectives be ?
How difficult should individual goals be?
Organizing
How many employees should I have report directly to me ?
How much centralization should there be in the organization ?
How should jobs be designed ?
When should the organization implement a different structure ?

9. Making Decisions : Rationality, Bounded Rationality and Intuition
Rational decision making Decision making behavior where choices are consistent and value maximizing within specified constraints Bounded rationality Decision making behavior that’s rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information

10. Intuition Intuituion Values or ethics based decisions
Experience based decisions
Affect initiated decisions
Cognitive based decisions
Sub conscious mental processing

11. Decision-making Conditions
Certainty
A situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known
Risk
A situation in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likehood of certain outcomes
Uncertainty
A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available

12. Decision making Styles
analytic
conceptual
directive
behavior

13. Decision making biases and errors
Decision making error and biases
overconfidence
hindsight
Self-serving
Sunk costs
randomness
representation
availabilty
framing
confirmation
Selective perception
Anchoring effect
Immediate gratification

14. Decision making for today’s world
Understand cultural differences
Know when it’s time to call quits
Do use an effective decision making process