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Quality Assessment Activities

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Presentation on theme: "Quality Assessment Activities"— Presentation transcript:

1 Quality Assessment Activities
Jennifer Mahoney NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory October 2003

2 Topics PIREPs CCFP Accuracy for 2003 Convective Activity and CCFP
Confidence Level Information on ADDS Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) algorithm

3 PIREPS Needed Verification data: PIREPS Subjective
Spatially and temporally biased Non-systematic Just another interesting verification challenge

4 CCFP Accuracy 2-h Coverage (2 March – 31 August)
High Medium Actual Coverage Low Low Medium High Forecast Category

5 CCFP Accuracy 2-h Coverage/Probability (2 March – 31 August)
High Medium Actual Coverage Low Low Medium High Forecast Category

6 CCFP Accuracy 2 March – 31 August 2002 and 2003
PODy Bias 2002 2003 2002 2003

7 CCFP Accuracy 2 March – 31 August 2002 and 2003
Heidke Skill Score Gilbert Skill Score 2002 2003 2002 2003

8 CCFP Accuracy Summary Overall, forecast skill improved in 2003.
Overforecasting of the convection increased slightly in 2003. The 2-h lead typically contained the correct amount of coverage for all categories of coverage. Largest improvement in the forecast occurred for the high coverage category. At the 4- and 6-h leads, the observed coverage was generally a category lower than the forecast coverage. The likelihood of obtaining the correct coverage increased with increasing probability at the 2-h lead. This was not apparent at the 4- or 6-h leads.

9 Convective Activity Key: Defining convective activity that impacts the flow of traffic 10nm surrounding 4-km NCWD

10 Convective Activity Key: Defining convective activity that impacts the flow of traffic Compute coverage over 3,000 sq. area

11 Convective Activity and CCFP

12 Confidence Level Statistics
Confidence Level Information for GTG Annual, Seasonal, Regional

13 Questions?


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