1. Quality Assessment Activities
Jennifer Mahoney
NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory
October 2003

2. Topics PIREPs CCFP Accuracy for 2003 Convective Activity and CCFP
Confidence Level Information on ADDS
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) algorithm

3. PIREPS Needed Verification data: PIREPS Subjective
Spatially and temporally biased
Non-systematic
Just another interesting verification challenge

4. CCFP Accuracy 2-h Coverage (2 March – 31 August)
High
Medium
Actual Coverage
Low
Low
Medium
High
Forecast Category

5. CCFP Accuracy 2-h Coverage/Probability (2 March – 31 August)
High
Medium
Actual Coverage
Low
Low
Medium
High
Forecast Category

6. CCFP Accuracy 2 March – 31 August 2002 and 2003
PODy
Bias
2002
2003
2002
2003

7. CCFP Accuracy 2 March – 31 August 2002 and 2003
Heidke Skill Score
Gilbert Skill Score
2002
2003
2002
2003

8. CCFP Accuracy Summary Overall, forecast skill improved in 2003.
Overforecasting of the convection increased slightly in 2003.
The 2-h lead typically contained the correct amount of coverage for all categories of coverage. Largest improvement in the forecast occurred for the high coverage category.
At the 4- and 6-h leads, the observed coverage was generally a category lower than the forecast coverage.
The likelihood of obtaining the correct coverage increased with increasing probability at the 2-h lead. This was not apparent at the 4- or 6-h leads.

9. Convective Activity
Key: Defining convective activity that impacts the flow of traffic
10nm surrounding
4-km NCWD

10. Convective Activity
Key: Defining convective activity that impacts the flow of traffic
Compute coverage
over 3,000 sq. area

11. Convective Activity and CCFP

12. Confidence Level Statistics
Confidence Level Information for GTG
Annual, Seasonal, Regional

13. Questions?