1. The need for a systems approach
Energy Planning
The need for a systems approach

2. The systems approach
1. Identify all the issues to be considered including:
o Cost
o Security of supply
o Environment
o National economy
2. Create a requirements (exigence) statement based on these issues

3. The systems approach for electricity generation planning
3. Identify options and assess them using a range of techniques including:
o Risk analysis
o Predictive modelling
o Analysis of data
o Cost-benefit analysis

4. The systems approach for electricity generation planning
4. Select the option that, on balance, best satisfies the requirements
5. Develop the plan based on this option

5. The systems approach for electricity generation planning
The performance of the system would be carefully monitored
Alternative strategies would be used if performance is unsatisfactory

6. The Popper principle
Scientists should seek to show that their theories are false rather than to show that they are true.
Seeking to show that a proposition is true has a higher risk of reaching a wrong conclusion than seeking to show that the proposition is false.

7. The Popper principle
Proposition: Wind power is a good method of satisfying the policy objectives.
Seeking to show that the proposition is true:
No resource depletion issues
 Free at point of capture
 No carbon emissions at generator
Seeking to show the proposition is false:
Needs to be discounted for meeting peak demand
 Very expensive
 Causes carbon emissions in the system

8. The Popper principle
Better to try to prove that you are wrong and fail than to try to prove that you are right and succeed

9. Energy
The global context

10. Resource depletion
Oil
Has oil already peaked? When will it peak?

11. Gas
Shale gas appears to have a very high potential to provide energy that is:
o Secure for a good number of decades
o Affordable
o Nationally available

12. Coal Severe problems with emissions Good reserves in UK
Reserves worldwide but may not be as good as is believed and China is using coal at a very fast rate.
Carbon Capture with Storage (CCS) - untested at the required scale

13. Nuclear
Very good long term fuel source prospects if uranium and thorium are used and breeder reactors are used
Health risks may be relatively low
Problem of waste storage is solvable

14. Global prospects for reducing carbon emissions/fossil fuel use
The world population is increasing - more energy use
Every nation is promoting economic growth - more energy use
Large scale renewable energy - technology not available
Significant per capita energy use reduction - unlikely to be achieved in the near future
We should keep working at it but should go in the directions that have the best potential

15. Scottish contribution
Heating %
UK energy use proportions
Transport %
Electricity 23%
What would the Scottish contribution be to global reduction in CO2 production if all electricity was carbon free in Scotland?
UK energy production % of global
Scottish proportion of UK %
Proportion from electricity %
Contribution = .02 x .1 x .23 = 0.05%

16. Scottish contribution
If we are to show an example we should do it right

17. Electricity generation
Thermal
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Wind
Wave
Tidal
Biomass
Waste
Geothermal
Solar
Hydro

18. Wind energy

19. UK electricity demand 7 December 2010

20. % Installed capacity

21. Wind prediction using UGRIB Monday 5 December 201221

22. UK Wind prediction using UGRIB Monday 5 December 201222

23. Fig 2 Evolution de la puissance cumulée:
10 novembre au 15 décembre 2030 (selon profil 2010)
Puissance totale: MW
Grand froid
Puissance max: MW soit 68 % et Puissance min: MW soit 6,9 %
Pointe d’évolution: 9600 MW/heure
Puissance moyenne:
soit 24,8 %
soit 16,8% sur 15 jours (15 au 30 nov.)
soit 8,4 % sur 36 h (26 au 28 nov.)
24/11/2011
"Sauvons le climat" J-P Pervès 23

24. (Surface) Power density
Wind power density W/m2
Tidal stream power density W/m2
Nuclear power density W/m2

25. 2. Cost Cost is an engineering issue
In professional engineering cost is normally the key criterion in decision making.
The cost of electricity generation cannot be adequately assessed by accountants. Understanding of the engineering issues is essential.

27. 3. Emissions reduction
There are no CO2 emissions at wind power generators.
But from a system viewpoint, the production of wind power does result in CO2 emissions.
To cater for intermittent wind power, thermal generators need to be operated inefficiently and therefore they produce more CO2 and use more fuel than they would otherwise do.
Studies for other countries suggest that this is an important issue.
This issue needs to be a major feature of a system study

28. Controlling the Grid Frequency - 500.5 hz Hydro
Open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT)
Efficiency 30%
Combined cycle gas turbine (GCGT)
Efficiency 50%
Coal

29. Wind generation in Denmark

30. Information about energy
Much, if not most, of the information available about electricity generation methods:
o is not based on consideration of all relevant issues
o has not been subject to comparison with other options
o has not been generated from best available sources

31. Basic principles
One should be sceptical about all reports on energy unless they are based on a systems analysis study
The principle that energy planning should be based on a systems approach should be promoted.

32. The End