1. We Have Not Crossed the Chasm
AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop
RFID Journal LIVE!
Orlando, FL
27 April 2009 by
Sprague Ackley
Intermec

2. Have we not crossed the chasm?
What is a chasm and when is it crossed?
RFID and the comparison to bar code
The lessons from standards
Finding the chasm
The other side of the chasm

3. What is a chasm and when is it crossed?
According to Webster’s:
Chasm
1: a deep cleft in the surface of a planet (as the earth) : gorge
2: a marked division, separation, or difference

4. What is a chasm and when is it crossed?
Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey Moore
The most difficult step is making the transition between the early adopters and mainstream application

5. What is a chasm and when is it crossed?
The chasm is crossed when a technology becomes “mainstream”
A technology is “mainstream” when it is “everywhere”

6. RFID and the comparison to bar code
RFID and bar code can track things
Bar code had its most visible application start in April 1973
Bar code grew slowly then rapidly
Bar code is everywhere
Bar code has crossed the chasm

7. The lessons from standards: bar code
After UPC in 1973, first industry standards in 1982
Early application standards for Military, Automotive and Healthcare in early 80’s
First bar code quality standard 1990
Bar code was “everywhere” by 1995 to 2000

8. The lessons from standards: RFID
First industry standards UHF in 2004
Early application standards for Military, Automotive and Retail mid 2000’s
First RFID quality standard in process
RFID will be “everywhere” by ????

9. Finding the chasm Growth of scanning supermarkets
Growth of early bar code industry
Growth of current RFID industry
Growth of future RFID industry

10. Growth of scanning supermarkets
Data from George Goldberg Memorial Digitization Project, Special Collections Department, Stony Brook University Library

11. Growth of scanning supermarkets

12. Growth of scanning supermarkets
CHASM

13. Growth of early bar code market
Data courtesy Paul Bergé International LLC. Y-axis in USD (billions).

14. Growth of bar code market

15. Growth of bar code market
CHASM

16. Growth of current RFID industry
Data courtesy VDC. Y-axis in USD (billions).

17. Growth of future RFID industry

18. Growth of future RFID industry
CHASM

19. The other side of the chasm
RFID has yet to reach the “mainstream”
Like early bar code applications, current successful RFID applications tend to be “closed-loop”
Standards will eventually stabilize and support rapid open-system growth
RFID will cross the chasm

20. The other side of the chasm
It is difficult to make predictions - particularly about the future.
(Confucius, Winston Churchill, Groucho Marx, 'Yogi' Berra and several others: Nature 455, 729, 9 October 2008)

21. We Have Not Crossed the Chasm
AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop
RFID Journal LIVE!
Orlando, FL
27 April 2009 by
Sprague Ackley
Intermec