1. Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators
22 April 2010

2. Overview
With no data available yet for a large proportion of the 71 countries covered in our update, our estimate of 2.3% growth in visitor arrivals in January is mainly a reflection of our 2010 forecasts rather than actual statistical trends.
The data that is available indicates very strong growth in the Middle East and parts of Asia Pacific, with a much more muted rebound evident in Europe. This is consistent with our expectation that emerging markets will lead the recovery this year.

3. Overview continued
Early data releases suggest that our 2010 forecast for a 2.5% growth in arrivals in 2010 may have been too conservative. However, given the current uncertainty regarding the fallout from the Icelandic volcanic eruption, it is clearly prudent to defer judgement on such issues.
A final point worth considering is that, given the dramatic collapse in arrivals in 2009Q1, growth rates may offer a slightly misleading picture of current conditions. By way of example, it is clear that, in Japan, despite very strong growth through February, Travel & Tourism activity remains subdued compared with 2008H1.

4. Big gains in some emerging markets…

5. …as growth picks up towards forecast for 2010…

6. …but growth rates can mask different realities
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7. Air passenger volumes continue to recover strongly…
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8. …driven principally by improvements in emerging markets
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9. 2010 data only available for 25 countries
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