1. Taming the Private Motor Vehicle (Trends-Problems-Policies) Konstadinos (Kostas) Goulias Penn State University

2. How do we ship goods? (ton-miles, all goods - US) 88% increase in ton miles in truck Source: Pucher, 1999

3. How do we ship goods? (% ton-miles, all goods) Source: Pucher, 1999

4. How do we travel (intercity)? (billions of passenger miles, all purposes) Source: Pucher, 1999

5. How do we travel (intercity)? (modal share, all purposes) Source: Pucher, 1999

6. How do we travel (urban)? (modal share, all purposes) Source: Pucher, 1999

7. Auto ownership and use Source: Pucher, 1999 Vehicle km of travel/Total roadway length

8. Who pays? (inflation-adjusted, constant 1996 USD) Source: Pucher, 1999

9. Cost allocation - FHWA 1997 Estimate cost responsibility of different vehicle classes Estimate government costs and revenues Identify components of agency costs at all levels (Federal, State, Local) Assess equity by different levels of users Guide policy of truck size and weight Guide policy on user charges Initial exploration on external costs Source:Forkenbrock, 1999

10. Ratios (who pays)? (2000 user charges/allocated costs) Source:Forkenbrock, 1999 Including accidents, air pollution, greenhouse gases, and noise truck freight underpays by 13.2%

11. Energy and Environment Fuel economy improved rapidly in US (18.6 MPG in 1978 v. 25.4 MPG in 1996) - CAFÉ regulation Fatalities per mile traveled decreased dramatically - new vehicle and highway technology Mobile source emissions per vehicle decreased - vehicle technology Fuel prices are getting lower CO2 emissions are rising because of increasing travel Other criteria pollutants are decreasing but: Source:Greene, 1999, Schiper, 1999

12. Emission Inventory U shaped curve (CO, NOx, HC)? Source:Acutt & Dodgson, 1999

13. Summary Private car dominates other modes Intercity travel dominated by car too! Air travel on the rise Heavy use of roadways Subsidies did not help public transport No clear signs of saturation in car ownership Highway users underpay maintenance and other easily measurable costs Traditionally considered external costs are not accounted for Gains in air pollution may be offset by increasing activity

14. How did we get here?

15. Public Policy Factors Tax and pricing policies favor private car Federal and State highway construction and maintenance favor the private car Federal tax and credit supply favor suburban residential development and home ownership, which in turn favors longer travel - private car Political and jurisdictional fragmentation favor suburbanization (residential and commercial) Source: Giuliano, 1999

16. Social and Cultural Values Strong private property rights Historical preference for single family home ownership The suburban ideal - quality of life (myth?) Ethnic and racial conflicts Demographic and labor force participation trends Higher income-lower car prices? Source:Giuliano, 1999

17. Current and Future Trends in the US Rising incomes - more suburban homes - more cars - more car and air travel - less travel by other modes Job decentralization - more suburban jobs - more free parking - longer distances - central location not needed No signs of reversal Many plans!!! Source:Giuliano, 1999

18. What Happens in Other Countries?

19. Good News (% of trips by mode, 1995) Source: Pucher, 1999

20. More cars every day (% increase/capita 1980-1994) 7 Source: Pucher, 1999

21. More cars every day (autos/1000 persons-1994) Source: Pucher, 1999

22. More car-km every day (auto km/person and year-1994) Source: Pucher, 1999

23. More car-km every day (percent change 1980-1994) Source: Pucher, 1999

24. Why? We are becoming increasingly car dependent (e.g., if you buy a car you will use it and create more need for it) Fragmented activities dispersed in time and space (e.g., short time in the evening for leisure) Domination of car inhibits growth of other modes (e.g., highway maintenance budgets) Perceptions, attitudes, and information provision (e.g., see next slide - multiple reasons)

25. Traveler Objective and Subjective Situations (reasons for not using public transportation in 13 German cities-25,000 trips) Source: Socialdata, 1999 29% 46% 7% 47% 27% 19% 4%

26. Top Trucking Transportation Issues Delays due to inspections and permits (safety & shipping papers) Highway (un)reliability - unexpected delays Highway quality

27. Options Used & Considered Policies Management strategies Public education & information New technologies

28. Policies Charge for the full costs of private car ownership and use (e.g., internalize traditionally considered as external costs - maybe considering social costs) Promote the development and use of new technologies (e.g., alternatively fueled vehicles, more efficient vehicles, fiscal incentives) Allocate costs to gainers more equitably (e.g., charge developers for transport improvement costs) Promote non-private car modes (e.g., bicycle network grants, walking paths)

29. Management Strategies Traffic management using command and control centers Intermodal-multimodal station improvements Creation of information systems for managing traffic and informing travelers Programs for incentives and disincentives (e.g., park- and-ride, ridesharing) Telecommunications to substitute travel (e.g., work at home programs, neighborhood telecenters) Individualized marketing

30. Education - Outreach Involve people in planning and in regulatory functions Educate public and decision makers about total costs Develop new communication methods Understand car dependency - land use - environment

31. Technology Energy efficient vehicles Ultra low emission vehicles Electric, hydrogen, fuel cell, and hybrids Information and telecommunication technology in cars Information and telecommunication technology in managing traffic Infrastructure design Automated highway system

32. Policies & Jurisdictions/Levels International - agreements and targets/standards Federal/EU - regulations State/National - fiscal incentives, pricing Local/Regional - location strategies, land use, incentives for behavioral change Source: Banister, 1999

33. Is all this going to work?

34. Some of the actors Persons, their households, and their social networks Companies (producers, shippers, receivers) Governments and their agencies (all levels) Semipublic-Semiprivate agencies/authorities (ports, airports, tollways) Associations & interest groups

36. I have a problem! The public says mass transit is important but it is ok - yet it does not carry many passengers The public says improve the roads (important and bad shape) If I follow this suggestion and invest on roads, I will create more incentives to use the private motor vehicle, which in turn creates even more problems Difference between public service and private product?

37. What are some ideas that you can give me to take home?