1. Update on Cash Crops Coleman Research Group Presentation Aug. 20, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,686
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,772
Imports 29
160 36 30
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,477
15,488
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,355
1,375
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,705
13,775
Ending Stocks
1,713
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
84.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,916
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
240
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,186
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,845
1,860
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
181
132
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,825
1,725
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,851
3,717
Ending Stocks
470
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
54.4
55.3
56.2
56.8
56.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.7
46.2
47.1
44.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
1,999
2,252
2,135
2,026
2,136
Beg. Stocks
862
743
718
590
753
Imports
112
123
169
144
125
Total Supply
2,974
3,118
3,021
2,760
3,014
Food
941
945
955
958
967
Seed 76 73 77 81 72
Feed & Residual
162
370
223
115
200
Exports
1,051
1,012
1,176
854
925
Total Use
2,231
2,400
2,431
2,008
2,164
Ending Stocks
850
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
7.24
7.77
6.87
5.99
5.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Early Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Early Soy Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Winter Wheat Yields Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Wheat Data
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Small Grains Summary Sorghum Barley Oats 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
7.1
8.7
3.0
3.4
2.7
3.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
67.6
74.6
72.4
71.8
67.7
70.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
433
573
177
210 70 85
Beg. Stocks 34 17 82 79 25 54
Imports 24 20
107 95
Total Supply
467
589
283
308
202
234
Feed & Residual
105 38 60 69
Food, Seed, & Other 15
151
153 77
Exports
350
430 14 2
Total Use
450
550
204
228
148
174
Ending Stocks 39 80
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.00
3.90
5.30
4.60
3.21
2.35
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

14. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

17. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Wheat Export Pace
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Corn Grind for Ethanol

22. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

23. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

24. Current Corn Futures
3.80
3.57
Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

25. Current Soybean Futures
8.60
8.49
Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

26. Current Wheat Futures
5.09
4.61
Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

27. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Does rain make grain for corn and soybeans?
Export weakness given the strength of the dollar
Competitive balance in wheat export markets
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(8/18/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.57
$3.80
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.15
$8.60
$8.49
Wheat
$5.99
$5.10
$4.61
$5.09

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: