1. Modification proposal 330
Delivery of additional analysis and derivation of seasonal normal weather.
Meeting of UNC Distribution Workstream 23 September 2010
Presentation by: Mo Rezvani

2. Background to the MOD 330
Seasonal Normal Weather is used across the industry for:
Use in the industry profiles.
Allocation and AQ’s.
Demand Forecasting.
5 yearly review is required under the code.
Currently this is undertaken by the Transporters and presented to the DESC.
EP2 project was carried out by the Metoffice for the industry.
Modification was raised to use it in the annual profile estimation and SND.
Problems with the way that EP2 result was used.
Discussion at DESC Concluded that an enduring solution is required.
An update to Metoffice’s analysis is needed.

3. Proposed new update Analysis
Stage1:
Analysis of historical data by an independent provider.
Consistent and transparent methodology.
Publication of a report on the way the data have been derived.
Report needs to be detailed enough to allow replication by the users.
Initial indication on costing, £20,000 for up to 50 years historical data on 30 sites.
Stage 2:
Analysis of Impact of Climate Change on historical dataset (in stage 1).
Adjusting each year of historical data to a level consistent with climate change.
Effectively providing over 80 years of adjusted data.
Consistent with the EP2 methodology and feed directly to generating CWV.
The methodology would be fully documented and available to all UNC signatories on demand.
Provisional estimate of cost of this work provided by the Metoffice is £200,000.

4. Reasons for recommending the implementation of this MOD
Introduce optionality into the UNC.
Improves accuracy in energy allocation ( £8M a month).
Ensures clarity of funding arrangement (50/50).
Ensures transporters are actively involved in the process.
Ensures that the climatological expertise within the industry is fully utilised.
Relatively minimal cost to the industry.