1. How binding is parenthood
How binding is parenthood? The impact of the parents’union trajectory up to the birth of the first child on the separation risk in Flanders
Martine Corijn1, Inge Pasteels2, Dimitri Mortelmans2, Koen Matthijs3
1 Research centre of the Flemish Government, Brussels
2 Research centre for longitudinal and life course studies (CELLO), University of Antwerp
3 Centre for sociological research, Catholic University of Leuven
European Network for the Sociological and Demographic Studies of Divorce Eighth Meeting, València 14th -16th October, 2010

2. Non-married cohabitation in Flanders
Late start: 4% of all unions in 1990
15% of all unions in 2007
Growing proportion of pre- versus postmarital cohabitation:
63% versus 37% in 1990
77% versus 23% in 2007
Strong non-religious profile
Changing educational profile: from low to middle/higher

3. Parental status at (first) birth in Flanders
Dramatic recent increase of non-marital births:
2.5% - 7% % %
Late but rapid shift of parental status at first birth:
premarital cohabitation:
19% - 40%

4. Non-married cohabiting parenthood in Flanders
In 2007: 7% of all unions
46% of all cohabiting unions
In 2007: Young children involved: 46% with youngest child < 3 years
In 2008: 1 in 7 children live with non-married cohabiting parents

5. Pre-(never-married) and post-(divorced)marital cohabitation and parenthood in Flanders (age 18-50)
1990
2000
2007
Pre: no kid 44 41
Pre: kids 19 29 35
Post: no kid 15 11 8
Post: kids 23 18
% in union 10 25 27
In % of partners had same civil status

6. Non-married cohabitation and union stability
Liefbroer & Dourleijn (2006): impact depends on diffusion of popularity of non-married cohabitation in European countries
CBS (2009): the Netherlands: change of impact of cohabitation over time
Mortelmans et al. (2009): Belgium: change of impact of non-married cohabitation is cohort- and region-specific

7. Union trajectory and stability for the child
Change of focus: from union stability to stability of life of the child
Wu, Bumpass & Musick (2001)
Manning et al. (2004)
Wu & Musick (2008)
Impact of cohabitation (C) - marriage (M) - first birth (B) on union stability:
C - B : least stable
C - M - B and C - B - M : in-between
M - B : most stable

8. Research question
Does the kind of union trajectory up to the first
birth – parenthood trajectory – make a difference
for the stability of the (first) child’s life in Flanders?

9. DiF-sample and data
Sample of first marriages since 1971 with 1/3 intact marriages and 2/3 non-intact marriages
Research population: ¼ intact marriages and ¾ non-intact marriages
Shortcomings: no cohabiting parenthood that was never or not yet converted into a first marriage; proportionality across cohorts reduces number of recent first marriages

10. (Intermezzo 1: Premarital cohabitants)
Shorter courtship period (51 vs 58 months)
Short period (29 months)
Majority has no legal arrangement
25% have child-related motives to marry
More non-religious
More middle & higher educated

11. (Intermezzo 2: Union trajectories up to first marriage across union cohorts)

12. (Intermezzo 3: From union to separation)
Higher separation risk:
across union cohorts
when wife is < age 20 at start union
after premarital cohabitation
after premarital conception
Lower separation risk:
when wife is age at start union
with higher education
No impact:
current religiosity

13. (Intermezzo 4: From childless to first birth)
Those that will separate have much lower chance to have a child (odds ratio 0.42)
No other differentials
 parenthood is binding

14. Parenthood trajectories across birth cohorts

15. Separation risk according to parenthood trajectory
marriage – conception
conception – marriage ns
cohabit – conception – marriage **
cohabit – birth – marriage ns
cohabit – marriage – birth ***
Impact of birth cohort and age mother
No impact of current religiosity and educational level

16. Conclusions (1)
Parenthood is binding
Married parenthood after cohabitation is less binding
Cohabiting parenthood followed by marriage or not: too recent to follow
Life of 0-18 olds (born ) with separated parents: 0.30% with parents cohabiting
63% with parents married
37% with parents separated

17. Conclusions (2)
Premarital cohabitation: short , no contract, child-related motives to marry
Marriage remains closely linked to fertility (premarital conceptions)
New developments to be monitored in years to come