1. Volume 3, Issue 6, Pages 535-543 (June 2016)
Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool 
Prof Seena Fazel, MD, Zheng Chang, PhD, Thomas Fanshawe, PhD, Prof Niklas Långström, PhD, Prof Paul Lichtenstein, PhD, Prof Henrik Larsson, PhD, Susan Mallett, PhD 
The Lancet Psychiatry 
Volume 3, Issue 6, Pages (June 2016)
DOI: /S (16)
Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

2. Figure 1
Estimated probability of violent reoffending in released prisoners in Sweden
The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, DOI: ( /S (16) )
Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

3. Figure 2
Model discrimination shown by receiver operating characteristics curves
The arrow indicates the point corresponding to the risk threshold. Sens=sensitivity. Spec=specificity. PPV=positive predictive value. NPV=negative predictive value. AUC=area under curve.
The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, DOI: ( /S (16) )
Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

4. Figure 3 Model calibration by levels of predicted risk
Data are from the external validation. Error bars represent 95% CIs. Numbers are the number of individuals in each risk category.
The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, DOI: ( /S (16) )
Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

5. Figure 4
Proportion of released prisoners who violently reoffend by risk group
Data are from derivation and validation samples.
The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, DOI: ( /S (16) )
Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions