1. Communicating Projections Changes in Oregon
Projections Managing Partnership Summit
Arlington, VA
October 11, 2018
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2. Communications Strategy #1
LEAD WITH THE BIG STORY

3. Oregon’s total employment is expected to grow by 12 percent
Private-sector growth of 212,000 jobs (13%)
Slower growth in government, adding 18,000 jobs (6%)
Additional 16,000 self-employed Oregonians (13%)

4. Health care leads future job growth in Oregon.
Private health care and social assistance accounts for one-fifth of all new jobs by 2027.
Construction will be the second-fastest growing sector (17%)
Federal government is the only broad sector expected to decline.

5. The Big Picture
Oregon’s total employment will grow by 12 percent between 2017 and 2027.
246,000 new jobs over the decade
263,000 average annual total job openings, mostly to replace workers who leave the labor force or make a major occupational change
Health care leads long-term employment growth.
Private health care and social assistance accounts for one out of every five new jobs in Oregon by 2027.
Eleven of the 20 fastest-growing occupations in Oregon are either health care practitioners or health care support workers.
A broad array of future career opportunities exist across Oregon’s economy.
All private sectors statewide and all regions of the state are expected to add jobs.
Even slower-growing sectors and regions need an abundance of newly trained workers to replace those who retire or otherwise leave the labor force.
Visit qualityinfo.org/projections for data tables and interactive charts.

6. CONSISTENCY AND CLARITY
Communications Strategy #2
CONSISTENCY AND CLARITY

7. Make New Concepts and Big Numbers More Relatable
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8. Make New Concepts and Big Numbers More Relatable
We’re also reiterating these main points through several different avenues:
Podcast (start at minute 4)
Show interactive graphs
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9. Health care-related occupations top the list of those growing fastest over the decade.
Refer to interactive slides 6 and 7, too.

10. Variety among top occupations with higher education levels

11. Communications Strategy #3
KEEP THE DETAILS AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE (and keep in-depth resources within reach)

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13. Critical points about the new replacements method…
“The prior method only accurately measures workers who follow the traditional concept of a career path – entering an occupation at a young age, working in the same occupation[al group] for many years, then retiring – which is not the case for many workers in most occupations.”
“The larger values for projected openings by occupation do not reflect actual increases in opportunities for workers but rather a better estimate of the opportunities that were already occurring. Published estimates from the projections and prior years should not be compared with the [or ] projections to estimate how the number of openings has changed over time.”
“The [new] method is designed to estimate the number of workers who leave their occupation and need to be replaced by new entrants into the occupation. It is not a measure of all movement in and out of occupations, but an estimate of workers who permanently leave an occupation.”
-- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(with a bit of my own added emphasis)

14. So, what do we do if/when we are asked about the big change?
In the days leading up to the release, re-visit the previous two slides, and the frequently asked questions sheet from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It’s helpful to consider the occupations relative to one another. They all have a similar change in total openings (about 3x higher). There will still be far more openings for cashiers than for economists.
Ideally each of us will be comfortable enough to explain the basics from the previous two slides. It’s also completely fine to refer people to Jason or Gail, or to the frequently asked questions document from BLS.
To Reiterate: methodology changes are NOT the lead, they are not the actual news story. If someone calls you and says “what will employment look like in Oregon in 2027” it seems silly to reply “well, we stepped ahead the base year and changed replacements!”

15. Senior Economic Analyst Join the conversation:
Gail Krumenauer,
Senior Economic Analyst
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OregonEmployment.Blogspot.com
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