1. Time for action – climate change, risks and challenges
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke & Dr. Fritz Reusswig
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate Conference
Bucharest, World Trade Center, 22 March 2018

2. ? Attribution Global mean temperature Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 from three data sets
Matthias Lüdeke

3. -> Global warming is anthropogenic
Attribution
Global Temperature
Model results shown are Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble ranges, with shaded
bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals.
IPCC 2014 WG 1-AR5 / CMIP5 (first evaluation done in 2007 (AR4), showing the same result)
-> Global warming is anthropogenic
Matthias Lüdeke

4. Projection
CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for change in global annual mean surface temperature relative to
1986–2005.
CMIP 5
-> clear difference in global warming between „business as usual“ (rcp8.5) and mitigation path (rcp2.6)
Matthias Lüdeke

5. Projection Change in N-summer (JJA) precipitation until 2090
under the rcp6.0/A1B scenario
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model
averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for June to August. White areas are where less than
66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the
change.
CMIP 3
Matthias Lüdeke

6. Projection CMIP5 for Romania, end of century:
Emission
Scenario:
rcp
Temp. - annual
Temp. - summer
Prc . - annual
Prc . - summer
8.5
+4.5°C (+/-0.5)
+5.5°C (+/-0.5)
-7% (+/-8)
-22% (+/-8)
6.0
+3°C(+/-0.5)
+4°C (+/-0.5)
-2.5% (+/-5)
-18% (+/-10)
2.6
+1.2°C (+/-0.5)
+1.7°C (+/-0.5)
-0%(+/-5)
-2,5% (+/-5)
-> strongly increasing drought event frequency/intensity for rcp 8.5/6.0 !
Matthias Lüdeke

7. Last decades: increasing trend of scorching heat intensity in Romania:
Sum(Tmax≥32°C), month VI-VIII
Romania’s 6th National Communication on Climate Change and 1st Biennial Report
To be expected to further increase strongly under Climate Change!
Case of Berlin under rcp8.5: 4 times the number of present heat days
at the end of the century – severe heat waves would become common!
(from the evaluation of CORDEX-results – could also be done for Romania)
Matthias Lüdeke

8. Projection
Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
Selma B Guerreiro et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett
Constanța,
Timișoara
Generalize to get back to global impacts
-small island states
-global tipping points, e.g. irreversible inland ice melt
Matthias Lüdeke

9. The Paris agreement: +1.5°C
Examples for measures/processes for the different stages
Matthias Lüdeke

10. Assessment of EU‘s NDCs
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC
Climate action tracker, 2018/ PRIMAP
Matthias Lüdeke

11. Criteria for „Fair share“
Assessment of NDCs
Criteria for „Fair share“
Historical Responsibility
• Cumulative greenhouse gases emissions per capita
Capacity to mitigate
• GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita
• Human Development Index (HDI)
Potential to mitigate
• Emissions intensity: Energy related greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP
• Emissions per capita
• Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy production
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC
Historical Responsibility
• Cumulative greenhouse gases emissions per capita, excluding deforestation emissions: starting and end years for accounting cumulative emissions are flexible
• Cumulative greenhouse gases emissions per capita, including deforestation emissions
Capacity to mitigate
• GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita
• Human Development Index (HDI) at a certain year
Potential to mitigate
• Emissions intensity: Energy related greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP
• Emissions per capita: Total national greenhouse gas emissions per capita, including deforestation emissions.
• Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy production
Matthias Lüdeke

12. BACKUP-slides
Matthias Lüdeke

13. Figure SPM.5 | Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are
global average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates
of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right
of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH – very high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). Albedo forcing due to
black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m–2, including contrail induced cirrus),
and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m–2) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the like-coloured bars. Volcanic
forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided
for three different years relative to 1750.

14. rcps
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multimodel
results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some
decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated
in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models
in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by
the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those
driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to
1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines
Matthias Lüdeke

15. atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) from Mauna Loa
(19°32’N, 155°34’W – red) and South Pole (89°59’S, 24°48’W – black) since 1958;

16. Projection
Matthias Lüdeke

17. Projection
Matthias Lüdeke

18. Projections for Berlin,
AFOK 2015
Matthias Lüdeke

19. Matthias Lüdeke

20. Matthias Lüdeke