1. Ag Outlook Young Professionals in Agriculture Johnston, Iowa
Jan. 13, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,232
Imports 28 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,315
5,036
5,275
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,175
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,397
1,367
1,395
Exports
1,834
1,543
730
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,595
Ending Stocks
1,877
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 41 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,076
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,780
Seed & Residual
130 88
105 97
116
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,770
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,666
Ending Stocks
410
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Corn Grind for Ethanol

10. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

11. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

12. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(1/12/15)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.65
$3.80
$4.07
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.20
$10.04
$9.60

13. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC:1/8/2015)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Dressed
Beef
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
7,781
-3.1
794
1.4
6,175
-1.7 II
8,325
0.2
782
0.4
6,513
0.6
III
8,321
-0.1
0.5
6,609 IV
8,035
-3.0
799
0.7
6,423
-2.3
32,462
-1.5
792
25,720
-0.7
2014
7,375
-5.2
796
0.3
5,868
-5.0
7,836
-5.9
789
0.9
6,183
-5.1
7,630
-8.3
810
1.9
6,178
-6.5
7,328
-8.8
821
2.8
6,019
-6.3
30,169
-7.1
804
24,248
-5.7
2015
7,142
-3.2
817
2.7
5,834
-0.6
7,614
-2.8
807
2.2
6,141
7,488
-1.9
820
1.3
7,291
-0.5
822
0.1
5,995
-0.4
29,535
-2.1
816
1.6
24,111
2016
7,159
5,881
0.8
7,348
-3.5
812
5,967
7,652
828
6,334
3.1
7,343
827
6,075
29,502
24,257

14. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC:1/8/2015)
Live Sltr.
Change
Feeder
Steer Price
from
Price
Year
5-Mkt Avg
Year Ago
7-800#
5-600#
Quarter
($/cwt)
(%)
2013 I
125.51
0.2
142.41
-7.68
170.13
-6.73 II
124.95
3.3
137.34
-10.03
159.71
-10.60
III
122.30
2.2
155.95
9.97
171.19
13.69 IV
130.77
4.2
167.04
14.02
187.56
16.20
125.88
2.5
150.69
1.26
172.15
2.31
2014
146.34
16.6
171.77
20.62
209.30
23.03
147.82
18.3
193.16
40.64
227.67
42.55
158.49
29.6
225.93
44.87
263.14
53.71
165.59
26.6
239.81
43.56
285.63
52.29
154.56
22.8
207.67
37.81
246.44
43.15
2015
12.4
32.73
33.30
11.6
19.59
24.52
1.9
1.58
5.46
-1.6
-5.76
-5.30
5.8
10.03
12.61
2016
0.0
-1.10
-0.90
0.6
-1.08
-1.06
-1.31
-1.77
-0.74
0.3

15. How Much Expansion. ERS & FAPRI Herd Projections http://www. ers. usda
ERS-2023 Herd Would Be:
+16% from 2014 (~= 2000)
FAPRI-2023 Herd Would Be:
+4% from 2014 (~= 2012 & 1962)

16. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

17. Data Source: USDA/AMS

18. 2013 Profits = -$100.77
~2014 Profits = +$197.24
~2015 Profits = -$80.55

19. Given LMIC forecast 54.3 lbs/capita) in 2014:
No demand change IF 2014 All Fresh Retail Price
= $517.8/lb (+4.8% from 2013)
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

20. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

22. Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (LMIC:1/8/2015)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Carcass
Pork
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
27,864
-0.9
208
-0.5
5,775
-1.4 II
26,765
0.4
206
5,516
-0.1
III
27,657
-1.1
204
1.2
5,622
-0.2 IV
29,792
-2.1
211
2.6
6,274
0.5
112,077
-1.0
207
0.7
23,187
-0.3
2014
27,134
-2.6
213
2.7
5,785
0.2
25,574
-4.4
215
4.4
5,504
25,554
-7.6
212
4.2
5,423
-3.5
28,624
-3.9
214
1.5
6,131
-2.3
106,886
-4.6
3.2
22,844
-1.5
2015
27,403
1.0
0.8
5,894
1.9
26,428
3.3
5,665
2.9
26,814
4.9
-0.7
5,652
30,177
5.4
0.1
6,473
5.6
110,822
3.7
-0.0
23,684
2016
28,935
6,235
5.8
27,241
3.1
5,850
27,622
3.0
0.3
5,839
30,620
6,585
1.7
114,418
24,509
3.5

23. Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (LMIC:1/8/2015)
Prices
Change
National Wtd
from
Year
Avg Base
Year Ago
Quarter
(%/cwt)
(%)
2013 I
81.08
-3.6 II
89.32
4.7
III
95.25
12.4 IV
82.98
3.0
87.16
4.1
2014
91.44
12.8
111.84
25.2
110.03
15.5
90.13
8.6
100.86
16.1
2015
85-88
-5.4
89-93
-18.6
86-91
-19.6
77-83
-11.2
84-89
-14.4
2016
77-84
-6.9
81-89
-6.6
80-88
-5.1
72-82
-3.8
79-85
-5.2

24. 2013 Profits = +$4.77
~2014 Profits = +$39.48
~2015 Profits = +$4.43

25. Given LMIC forecast 46.0 lbs/capita) in 2014:
No demand change IF 2014 Pork Price
= $380.0/lb (+1.7% from 2013)
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: