1. Bad weather in Potsdam in the mid of the 21th century?
Matze/Carsten
March 2015

2. Climate Change projections for Potsdam
Project: “Concept for Adaptation to Climate Change in the State Capital of Potsdam”
City applies, BMU pays, we do it together with RD4 (Fritz) and 2 Potsdam based engineering offices (LUP, RegioFutur)
Suggestions for adaptation measures
Urban climate change impacts
Climate Change projections for Potsdam

3. Projections:
Statistical (i.p. resampling), e.g. STARS
Dynamic (physical mechanisms), e.g. CORDEX contributers

4. Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

5. Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

6. Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

7. CORDEX Europe

8. Analysis of CORDEX results.
Example: annual mean of daily max. temperature
12 GCM/RCM combinations

9. Annual precipitation Observed annual precipitation
Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to ] for 2045 (blue)
and 2085 (red).
Dashed lines: single model results for 2045
Dotted lines: single model results for 2085

10. Total runoff per year
Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to ] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red).
Dashed lines: single model results for Dotted lines: single model results for 2085

11. Total runoff per year Model name Y0 historical (1979-2013) change in %
Projected change ( ) in %
Projected change ( ) in %
ERA-INTERIM 75 17 --
"CNRM-CCLM"
119 11 14 25
"CNRM-RCA4"
102 9 46 86
"ICHEC-CCLM"
107
-48 -2
"ICHEC-HIRHAM"
276 95 3
"ICHEC-RACMO"
122 41 10 8
"ICHEC-RCA4" 2 27 1
"MPI-CCLM"
167 62 15
"MPI-RCA4"
176 -5
"HadGEM-RCA4" 82 -8 76
„IPSL-RCA4“
166 21 24 49
3.-8. Model mean (2/3)
9 – 25
1 – 49
Multi model mean 28
Subset multi model mean (hist. right sign) 18 30

12. Heavy rain days (Prc > 16mm) per year
Observed heavy rain days
Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to ] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red).
Dashed lines: single model results for Dotted lines: single model results for 2085
advective + convective rain: convective rain:

13. Hot days (Tmax > 30°C) per year
Observed hot days
Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to ] for 2045 (blue)
and 2085 (red).
Dashed lines: single model results for 2045
Dotted lines: single model results for 2085