1. UKL Replacement Scenario Consideration
22nd November 2006

2. Possible Scenario - AMR
Action to consider scenarios – varied market penetration of AMR
Example scenario
Assume all NDM monthly read meters have AMR
Each daily read is sent to the GT
No other process changes – e.g. continue to balance on NDM allocations, reconciliation as-is

3. Practical implications
Currently approx. 1.6 million reads per annum for monthly read NDM
Potential change could result in 55 million reads per annum
4.8million reconciliations per month (compared to c200,000 now)
Each read
Converted to volume
Used for NDM Reconciliation (low value)
A potential USRV or query
Stored
AMR scenario would clearly impose significant additional costs, but we have not estimated this speculative scenario

4. Outcome
Considered to be an unlikely scenario – no business driver or apparent benefit
Previous regime changes had overriding purpose:
RGMA – metering competition
RGTA – market signals
RbD – efficiency with domestic competition
Other scenarios could include:
Half-hourly reads – CA model. How might this affect transporters? An increased order of magnitude
Change that removes the need to store and manipulate data as at present? Potential decrease

5. Conclusions
Consensus that the world will look different in 10 years, but..
No scenarios identified that would warrant amended PCR submission
Future dialogue may surface specific requirements
Desirable to have a mechanism to meet requirements