1. Scenarios for South Africa
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly
for strategic conversations
Scenarios for South Africa
Making the impossible happen
Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

2. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM for strategic conversations
STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly
for strategic conversations
THE
SCENARIOS FOR
SOUTH AFRICA

3. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Pretoria will provide and other myths 3

4. Social transformation Economic transformation Political transformation
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Long walk to Freedom
South Africa unchanged
Ubuntu
South Africa united
Democracy
Liberalised
autocracy
Social transformation
1994
Election
1999
Election
Economic transformation
Pretoria will provide
South Africa entitled
Autocracy
Limited
democracy
Cry the beloved Country
South Africa corrupted
Political transformation

5. Drivers of Change and the SA Scenario Map
Social Transformation
SA Social Capitalism; Growth through Redistribution; The Golden Triangle.
Government intervention, PPP’s; Subsidies, Infrastructure
GDP GROWTH
> 5 % PA
INFLATION
5 - 8 % PA
EMPL GROWTH
> PA
3 - 5 % PA
% PA PA
2 - 3 % PA
% PA PA
< 0 % PA
% PA
< PA
1. Ubuntu Scenario
2. Long Walk to Freedom
SA Social Democracy; Redistribution with Growth
4. Cry the Beloved Country
NO CONFIDENCE LOW AVERAGE HIGH CONFIDENCE
Risk Avoidance Risk Aversion Risk Tolerance Risk Taking
Economic Transformation
NOW, Muddling along as we are, or change . . .
SA Communism; Redistribution with or without growth SA – A Third World Country
3. Pretoria will Provide
Closed System Open System
Paradigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm Reinvention
Racial conflict Racial tension Racial tolerance Racial reconciliation (Ubuntu)
Political Transformation
(Based on Gerald Harris: The Art of Quantum Planning: 2009)

6. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Performance of South Africa on Key Uncertainties

7. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Impact of Strategic Issues on South Africa

8. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Availability of Key Capabilities on South Africa
BMI-BSCU

9. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Impact of Stakeholder Power and Interest

10. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Performance on Criteria for Achieving Growth

11. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Performance of South Africa on the Golden Straitjacket*
* When it comes to the question of which system today is the most effective at generating rising standards of living, the historical debate is over. The answer is free market capitalism. When a country recognises the rules of the free market in today’s global economy, and decides to abide by them, it puts on the Golden Straitjacket. To fit into the Golden Straitjacket a country must either adopt, or be seen to be moving toward, the golden rules. (The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Tom Friedman: 1999, 104)

12. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Likelihood of Integration of SA Society in the Short-, Medium- and Long-term

13. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Current Reality of Political Transformation in South Africa

14. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Current Reality of Economic Transformation in South Africa

15. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Current Reality of Social Transformation in South Africa

16. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
The State of The Nation Experienced

17. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Outlook for the State of the Nation

18. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Outlook for the State of the Nation

19. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Making Sense of the future of SA: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios

20. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Making Sense of the future of SA: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios

21. KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE SHAPING THE SA SCENARIO
Deregulated Market Economy. Driven primarily by private investors
Lower Middle Road
The state restricts citizens’ access to feedback mechanisms in order to introduce unpopular economic reforms, such as deregulating the labour market.
**************************************************
South Africans are poor but unfree.
High Road
Rapid economic deregulation boosts private investment and economic growth;
Citizens reward the ruling party at the polls.
*************************************************
South Africans are prosperous as well as free.
Most citizens have access to feedback mechanisms
Most citizens lose access to feedback mechanisims
Low Road
State intervention in the economy undermines investor confidenceand growth. To avoid losing power, the government restricts citizens’ access to feedback mechanisms.
**************************************************
South Africans are poor as well as unfree.
Upper Middle Road
The government fails to reform the economy, which continues to languish. Citizens remove the ruling party from power.
**************************************************
South Africans prosperous but also unfree.
Heavily regulated economy, directed by the state
(Source: Based on A time travelers guide to our next 10 years: Frans Cronje: 2014 )

22. Economic Transformation
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
UBUNTU
South Africa united
Medium to High growth
Medium to Strong Opposition
Entrenched Democracy
Non Racist, Non Sexist,
Reconciled Nation
LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
South Africa unchanged
Average to Medium growth
Weak to Medium Opposition
Espoused Democracy
Tolerant Nation
PRETORIA WILL PROVIDE
South Africa entitled
Average to Weak growth
Weak to non- existent Opposition
Shaky Democracy
Tense Nation
CRY THE BELOVED COUNTRY
South Africa corrupted
Weak to Negative growth
One Party State
Ignored Democracy
Divided Nation
The future of South Africa depends on progress along the
three axis of POLITICAL-,
ECONOMIC- , AND SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION.
The solution lies in an approach that inextricably links
economic policy, social development and transformation.
The UBUNTU scenario requires an entrenched democracy,
a reconciled Nation, united behind a common vision,
an open Economic system, the alleviation of poverty
and social delivery of housing, health and education.
GDP GROWTH
> 5 % PA
INFLATION
5 - 6 % PA
EMPL GROWTH
> PA
3 - 5 % PA
% PA PA
2 - 3 % PA
% PA PA
< 0 % PA
% PA
< PA
Social Transformation
Economic Transformation
Risk Avoidance Risk Aversion Risk Tolerance Risk Taking
NO CONFIDENCE / LOW / AVERAGE / HIGH CONFIDENCE
Closed System Open System
April 1994
Elections
The
Political
Miracle
One Party State Multi-Party Democracy
Political Transformation
Closed System Open System
Paradigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm Reinvention
Racial conflict Racial tension Racial tolerance Racial reconciliation

23. THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SA
Making Sense of the future of SA: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios
OPEN SYSTEM
40%
10%
Lower Middle
Road
Pretoria will
Provide Scenario
High Road
Ubuntu Scenario
RACIAL CONFLICT
RECONCILIATION
AND
NATION BUILDING
Low Road
Cry the Beloved
Country Scenario
Upper Middle
Road
Long Walk to
Freedom Scenario
20%
30%
CLOSED SYSTEM 23