1. 2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Sept. 1, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
92.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
153.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,914
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
940
Imports 14 8 30 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,185
13,874
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,000
4,900
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,020
5,100
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,400
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,825
1,750
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,245
13,160
Ending Stocks
910
714
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.25
6.70 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
230
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,301
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,645
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
125
111
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,495
1,400
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,265
3,146
Ending Stocks
155
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.35
13.50 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
55.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.4
45.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,208
2,077
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
861
Imports
127
119 97
100
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,281
3,037
Food
927
919
930
945
Seed 78 69 73 82
Feed & Residual
255
150
129
240
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,100
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,420
2,367
Ending Stocks
671
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.60 4 4

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 5 5

6. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 6 6

7. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

10. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 8/29/2011

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

12. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

14. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

15. Wheat Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64
2012
4.86 17 17

18. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

19. Ethanol Margins
Source: CARD

20. Ethanol Blending Advantage

21. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE, EIA

22. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE, EIA

23. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 23 23

25. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

26. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Winter Wheat Yields Last Year KS 45 OK 31 TX 34 US 46.8
Source: USDA-NASS

28. Projected Spring Wheat Yields
Projected Change in Production
Hard Red Spring -17%
White +3%
Durum -47%
Source: USDA-NASS

29. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

30. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

31. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

32. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Supply/demand concerns
Droughts, floods, heat waves, etc.
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12
USDA
Futures
(8/29/11)
2012/13
Corn
$6.70
$7.42
$6.48
Soybeans
$13.50
$14.00
$13.26
Wheat
$7.60
$7.89
$8.34

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: