1. European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010
Volker Schippers GTE+ Senior Adviser
GTE+ Workshop on GTE+ Work Programme
24 June 2008

2. European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010
European level analysis of the transportation capacities and consumption forecasts in peak conditions and identification of possible EU internal bottlenecks to fulfil demand under these conditions
Contents
Daily consumption forecast in peak winter conditions for the next winter under normal and exceptionally cold conditions
Transmission capacities of infrastructures at main European import points, LNG terminals and aggregated entries from national production
Aggregated entry capacities from storages

3. Background
First European Winter Outlook was developed by GTE for the winter 2007/2008 after discussing this idea on Madrid XI
Highly welcomed in the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 25 October 2007; additional analyses requested
Results of these analyses presented by GTE on the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 8 January 2008
GTE+ plans to develop Winter Outlooks for the winters 2008/2009 and 2009/2010
Recognise usefulness of this work for the European Gas Market
Draft Third Energy Package of the Commission foresees the development of annual Winter Outlooks by ENTSOG

4. Assumptions
Based on the respective national information provided by GTE+ members
Expected that a fair representation of the European situation can be developed although it must be taken into account that the data collected this way cannot necessarily be seen as complete
Develop and apply specific assumptions to take into account the depletion of production fields and the decrease of the withdrawal performance of gas storages during the winter

5. Timeline 2008 2009 Winter Outlook 2008/2009 Winter Outlook 2009/2010 JF M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Winter Outlook 2008/2009
Data Collection and Analysis
Presentation and Discussion
Final Version
Winter Outlook 2009/2010
Data Collection and Analysis
Presentation and Discussion
Final Version

6. Development Phases for the Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010
Data Collection and Analysis (July and August)
Collection of the data via the GTE+ Members
Evaluation of the data received
Production of a draft Winter Outlook
Presentation and Discussion (September and October)
Presentation of the draft to European Stakeholders (MF, GCG or another appropriate event involving a large number of European stakeholders)
Feedback received will be used to refine the work
Publication of Final Version (October)

7. Discussion