1. 4/27/2019
Cyberwar Fiction, Facts, and the Future of Arms Control Ralf Bendrath, Berlin FoG:IS Forschungsgruppe Research Group on the Informationsgesellschaft und Information Society and Sicherheitspolitik Security Policy Visiting Scholar Lecture George Washington University The Elliott School of International Affairs Center for International Science and Technology Policy (CISTP) Security Policy Studies Program (SPS) 26 March 2001

2. Cyberwar in political perception
4/27/2019
Cyberwar in political perception
„one of the central challenges for security policy in the future“ (Senator John McCain in primaries 1999)
„There will be an electronic attack sometime in our future” (John Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defense 1996)
„Cyberspace ain´t for geeks, it´s for warriors“ (John Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defense 1999)
„electronic Pearl Harbor“ (popular meme since 1991)
„This is a classic deterrence mission” (Condoleezza Rice last week)

3. Cyberwar in US Security Policy
4/27/2019
Cyberwar in US Security Policy
Part of counterterrorism policy PDD-63, May 1998
Seen as “emerging threat” Congress
Included in military strategy planning JV 2010 & 2020, QDR 2001
“Homeland defense” CSIS, Hart-Rudman Commission
a task for military strategy?

4. Underlying Assumptions
4/27/2019
Underlying Assumptions
real threat
foreign nations or terrorist groups
have capabilities
with intentions to use
vulnerability of US systems
can be answered militarily
can be coordinated centrally
threat independent of US policy

5. 4/27/2019
What do we really know?

6. 4/27/2019
It could be just junk mail, Colonel, or the beginning of a major enemy attack...

7. Real Threat? foreign nations terrorist groups Russia: media management
4/27/2019
Real Threat?
foreign nations
Russia: media management
China: “People’s Information War”
India/Pakistan: just began
Germany: working on it, mainly defense
France: economic espionage
Cuba: ridiculous
terrorist groups
prefer bombs
bin Laden uses encryption - so what?

8. Incidents Solar Sunrise Kosovo War Middle East China & Taiwan
4/27/2019
Incidents
Solar Sunrise
not Iraq, but US & Israeli teens
Kosovo War
website hacks, viruses, s
Middle East
website hacks, DoS-attacks
China & Taiwan
private hackers, no govt. involved

9. Vulnerabilities? no sound estimates or statistics
4/27/2019
Vulnerabilities?
no sound estimates or statistics
national security systems not connected to public networks
critical systems not connected to public networks
patches!
main damage from viruses

10. Military Answer? deterrence is communication unknown opponent
4/27/2019
Military Answer?
deterrence is communication
unknown opponent
not a precise weapon
Posse Comitatus
law of armed conflict
political oversight?

11. Central Coordination? private ownership of systems
4/27/2019
Central Coordination?
private ownership of systems
technology decentralised
centralised structures too slow

12. Best Practice local solutions and defenses awareness & education
info-sharing
open source
computer scientists, not soldiers

13. Cyber Security Policy (Clinton)
law enforcement
coordination within government
cooperation with industry
education for IT security
awareness

14. U.S. Influence on Cyber-Threat
have done it
computer intrusions since 1980s
cyberwar waged 1991 & 1999
part of military strategy
Joint Doctrine for Info-Operations
FM (Info Operations)
specialised military units
infowar units (since 1994, expanding)
part of combat commands (2001)

15. U.S. influence on Cyber-Threat
4/27/2019
U.S. influence on Cyber-Threat
mid-eighties: CIA and NSA hack into Soviet and other computers
late eighties: U.S. armed forces develop computer viruses and recruit hackers
1991: US forces hack into Iraq‘s C2 systems
1994: „School for Information Warfare and Strategy“, National Defense University
1996: „Information Warfare“ makes way into „Joint Vision 2010“
October 1998: Joint Pub „Joint Doctrine for Information Operations“, offensive use of hacking

16. U.S. influence on Cyber-Threat
4/27/2019
U.S. influence on Cyber-Threat
Spring 1999: Computer Network Attacks on Serbia
May 2000: „Joint Vision 2020“, even bigger role for information warfare than in JV 2010
October 2000: US Space Command assumes responsibility for Computer Network Attacks
February 2001: Air Intelligence Agency becomes part of Air Combat Command, goal: integrate computer network attacks into operational planning

17. The IT - Insecurity Cycle
4/27/2019
The IT - Insecurity Cycle
IT vulnerability
usage of
IT-security holes
cyber warfare
military and
intelligence services

18. Dangers of U.S. Cyberwar Plans
4/27/2019
Dangers of U.S. Cyberwar Plans
export problems for U.S. computer industry
chilling effect on digital economy
U.S. as role model
cyber-arms race
Cyberspace less safe

19. Cyber Arms Control needed politically possible urgent
4/27/2019
Cyber Arms Control
needed
to prevent cyber arms race
to secure digital economy
politically possible
already proposed by other nations
computer industry would love it
urgent
dynamic still slow - how long?
U.S. policy critical
most advanced, role model

20. Weapons systems approach
4/27/2019
Weapons systems approach
quantitative
what to count?
manpower, computer power, network connections,...?
qualitative
what to prohibit?
hacking tools, planning tools, network mapping tools,...?
Verification almost impossible

21. Normative approach Doctrines Units Operations
4/27/2019
Normative approach
Doctrines
offensive use of hacking?
Units
computer attack units?
Operations
network attacks part of wargames?
Verification difficult, but not impossible

22. Options for Action political oversight no first use
4/27/2019
Options for Action
political oversight
no first use
international convention on peaceful use of cyberspace
collaboration of security policy studies and computer science
see you in Berlin? Conference on Cyber Arms Control 29 June - 1 July

23. If you have become curious...
4/27/2019
If you have become curious...
Dipl. Pol. Ralf Bendrath
discussion list Infowar.de
FoG:IS Forschungsgruppe Informationsgesellschaft und Sicherheitspolitik
Telepolis Dossier „Infowar“
Federation of American Scientists