1. Deterrence Below The Weapons Threshold Cristina Varriale

2. ‘Traditional’ Nuclear Deterrence

3. The Concept of Nuclear Hedging3

4. Hedging Deterrence
Hedging deterrence as the ‘threat to cross the weapons threshold and acquire nuclear weapons’.
Technical means
Political resolve
Cost of acquisition to an adversary 4

5. Technical Means Iran Civil nuclear infrastructure Hedging
Overt nuclear weapons stockpile and posture
Iran
Deterrence 5

6. Political Resolve
Frequently stated it does not have an interest in pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, BUT:
Lapses commitment to IAEA safeguards agreements
Breach 2003 nuclear agreement in 2004
January 2006 Iran resumed centrifuge R & D at the Natanz site 6

7. Cost of acquisition to an adversary
Cost of retaliation must be high enough to alter the adversary calculations.
Threat of use in tradition nuclear deterrence
Is the threat of acquisition high enough? 7

8. Conclusion
Technical means + Political will + cost of acquisition = deterrence?
Two track mitigation - maintaining strengthen of non-proliferation norm - ensuring technical proliferation resistance