2. Gains and Strains for the Economy
The economy always follows a cyclical pattern, and the positive growth since the recession is historically unprecedented, which means there will be a recession eventually (probably 2020), so now is the time for wise advertisers to prepare and not panic.
Other potentially good signs were the unexpected 304,000 new nonfarm jobs during January and a more modest growth in the GDP, now forecast at approximately 2.9%, which is actually better for the economy and helps limit a recession’s effects.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ January 2019 Small Business Optimism Index decreased 3.2 points to 101.2, which the government shutdown may have affected. The index is still strong, but indicates a bit more uncertainty about 2019.

3. Retail Data Debate
Many economists think the government shutdown may have been largely responsible for December retail sales surprisingly decreasing 1.2%. Mastercard SpendingPlus data showed a 5.1% increased for the November 1– December 24 period.
The US Commerce Department also reported non-store retail sales, which are primarily online, increased “just” 3.1% for December YOY, although they increased 12.1% during November 2018, another indication December’s data may be an anomaly.
Despite these “contradictory” reports, the National Retail Federation is still forecasting a 3.8% to 4.4% increase in retail sales, or $3.84 trillion. A US-China trade agreement could have a significant, positive influence on retail and the economy.

4. Government Shutdown Causes Consumer Confusion
According to analysis from The Conference Board, the decrease of 6.4 points in its January 2019 Consumer Confidence Index may also be attributable to the government shutdown, as the index was compared to for December.
The Present Situation Index was essentially unchanged, at 169.9, compared to for December. Another positive trend was 37.4% of consumers said business conditions were good, which didn’t change from December.
Despite a strong labor market and relatively stable wages, the New York Federal Reserve reported during February 2019 that more than 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their vehicle loans.

5. Spending More on the Home and Home Life
According to HomeAdvisor’s TrueCost Report 2018, 80% of the survey participants said they were planning to remain in their homes, which should increase the retail sales of home improvements, lawn & garden, furniture and other products this spring.
An interesting finding from Nielsen’s December Total Consumer Report is all survey respondents, regardless of ethnicity, said they were willing to pay the same or more for the right store-brand product.
Easter Sunday 2019 is late (April 21), which gives you more time to help retailers that rely on traditional Easter sales, such as clothing and celebratory items (candy, Easter baskets, etc.) plan their advertising for maximum foot traffic and sales.

6. Household Enthusiasts Is a Hot Market
RetailMeNot has identified a new consumer segment, the Household Enthusiast, that goes beyond standard demographic categories. For example, both Millennials and Gen Xers are in this segment, 60% are women and 15% earn more income than average.
As might be expected, Household Enthusiasts are typically making purchases for others, not just themselves, and they make an in-store purchase 5 times/month and an online purchase 3.6 times/month.
Not surprisingly, the largest purchase category is family necessities (grocery), at 34%; followed by style staples (clothing, health & beauty, etc.), 20%; lifestyle extras, (restaurants, travel, etc.), 19%; and automotive/miscellaneous, 11%.

7. Digital Retail Is Unstoppable
e-Marketer is predicting total 2019 e-commerce sales will increase 15.1%, which would be almost 5 times the increase for all retail sales, and total $605.3 billion.
US mobile retail sales are forecast to increase to 44.7% of all 2019 e-commerce retail sales, which would be approximately $270 billion, and $93 billion will be spent for mobile advertising during 2019, which is 22.4% more than during 2018.
These forecasts and the rapid evolution of 5G, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies will put tremendous pressure on retailers of all sizes to have the tools in place to respond to consumers’ migration to the mobile channel for shopping.

8. Advertising Strategies
Clothing and other stores with women as their primary target audience could launch a “Working Women’s Spring Breakout” Promotion, offering a discount when women buy a set of “working” and “casual” apparel together.
Any retailer could promote and host a “The First Picnic of Spring” event, providing a free picnic at a local park for 25, 50 or 100 people randomly selected. It’s an opportunity to start conversations with local consumers, distribute coupons and discover their preferences.
Retailers of all types can be catalysts for neighborhood clean-up programs, with employees and community volunteers participating. Provide everyone with a T-shirt, free lunch, etc., and then use the event to publicize retailers’ community involvement and “good works.”

9. New Media Strategies
Home improvement, lawn & garden and outdoor furniture stores could host a contest on social media, asking local residents to nominate a neighbor whose yard requires some TLC. Ask everyone to vote for the “neediest,” who receives a free package of products/services.
Launch an online series of “Find More Time to Relax” posts, preferably videos, featuring tips from a local time management expert to help men find more time to relax, interspersed with a post promoting a discounted package of men’s relaxation products and/or services.
Invite customers and social media visitors to post their spring cleaning tips, preferably videos, as well as tips from a local recycling expert about environmentally-friendly ways to dispose of large and hazardous items.