1. Turnover survey on the services sector, Retail Trade and Other services
Presentation by Daniel Lennartsson /30
Mail
Authors: Annika Lindblom and Markus Thorsteinsen

2. Disposition Demands from users Method until 2007 Surveydesign today
VAT legislation
Aim of this project
Is it possible to use VAT data
First study concerning first quarter 2009

3. 1. Demands from users – Retail trade
Activity breakdown
Timeliness
Periodicity
Eurostat
Main aggregates
T+30
Monthly
Details
T+60
National accounts
Details-38 activities
T+45 (T+25)
Quarterly
Swedish retail Institute
Details-15 activities
Others (NB, Ministry, NIER)

4. 1. Demands from users – Other services
Activity breakdown
Timeliness
Periodicity
Eurostat
Details
T+60
Quarterly
National accounts
Details-88 activities
T+45 (T+25)
Others (NB, Ministry, NIER)
Main aggregates
T+30
Monthly

5. 2. Survey method on Other services until 2007
The Swedish parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from January 2008 in the VAT data
Demands from users changed from January 2008 from quarterly to monthly
Until 2008 we used a mixture of:
administrative data (VAT) from the Swedish Tax Authority – used for all small enterprises
Current Ratio Method used for imputation
data collected from questionnaires – used for all large enterprises
a few NACE acitivties were based only on questionnaires

6. 2. Effects of the new regulation
Due to effect of the change demands from users it was hard to use VAT data before it was investigated
Due to timeliness VAT data for small enterprises is complicated to use in the survey on Other services
The change in return period for small enterprises meant that Stat Sweden was forced to collect the information direct from enterprises
Response burden increased

7. 3. Surveydesign today Retail trade:
Monthly survey to approx enterprises each month
Preliminary results after T+28 and definite results after T+58
Other services:
Monthly survey to approx enterprises each month. Results Total service production and six aggregates. T+35
- Quarterly suvey to additional enterprise. Monthly information collected. Results for 88 activities. T+45

8. 4. VAT- Change in the legislation
The Swedish Parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from first January 2008, regarding small enterprises.
Enterprises with an estimated annual turnover:
exceeding 40 million SEK are, as before, required to report VAT on a monthly basis
below or equal to 40 million SEK are required to report VAT on a quarterly basis

9. 4. Time points for submission of the VAT-return
The VAT-return for a large monthly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 25 days after the end of the reference month
The VAT-return for a small quarterly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 40 days after the end of the reference quarter
Statistics Sweden need the VAT-data about 35 days after the end of the reference quarter

10. 5. Aim of this project Statistics Sweden approach is to:
use a sample survey (and collect information direct from the enterprises) for a monthly indicator
explore the possibility to use VAT-data for small enterprises in the production of the detailed quarterly estimates
Study different methods to use observed values in the VAT-data to compensate for enterprises not submitted the VAT return, due to timeliness.

11. 6. Turnover after reference period
Nace
Year basis
Quaterly
Monthly
Total
Share 50
4 120
32 242 11 51
10 373
81 952 34 52
6 830
57 856 55
3 695
27 883
69 863 3 60
2 652
20 638 4 61
258
1 433
36 042
37 733 1 62
959
49 411
50 381 63
1 391
12 073 5 64
844
1 290 70
2 796
39 514 71
450
4 606
26 122
31 178 72
2 671
20 532 73
281
1 395
88 894
90 570 2 74
7 091
70 045 9 90 66
1 132
18 270
19 468 92
478
4 790
60 167
65 435 93
415
3 783
12 934
17 132
45 750
100

12. 6. Proportion of turnover after reference period
Nace
Year basis
Quaterly
Monthly small
Monthly Large
Share 50 1 8 15 75
100 51 7 9 84 52 2 14 19 66 55 4 27 37 31 60 13 54 61 87 62 3 95 63 6 10 83 64 98 70 21 71 20 72 73 74 23 90 12 82 92 93 22 44 32
Totalt

13. 6. Proportion of enterprises after referenceperiod
Nace
Year basis
Quaterly
Monthly small
Monthly Large
Share 50 7 34 53 5
100 51 39 43 11 52 10 2 55 12 36 1 60 28 64 61 40 41 9 62 6 37 23 63 46 13 70 18 49 31 71 48 4 72 73 21 38 74 15 90 29 54 92 25 35 93 32 58
Totalt 3

14. 6. Proportion of turnover that has been reported within 38 days after the expiredate of the reference period
NACE
For all Periods
One month of three
Two month of three*
No data**
Share 50 80 11 9
100 51 87 5 7 52 72 13 15 55 41 27 32 60 61 24 89 62 95 2 3 63 86 6 64 98 1 70 12 25 71 16 76 8 73 96 74 14 23 90 84 92 85 93 44 31
Totalt 79 10
* In this group 97 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises
** In this group 26 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises and 69 procent from quaterly reporting companies

15. 6. Imputation data for monthly providers
Activity
Data for all three months
Data for two out of three months
Share 50
11 812
40 969 22 51
25 235
61 291 29 52
14 311
50 464 55
5 432
25 342 18 60
7 421
37 994 16 61
708
1 994 26 62
109
1 064 9 63
4 037
11 379 64
266
956 70
8 510
16 463 34 71
1 208
3 887 24 72
4 151
11 354 27 73
1 100
1 852 37 74
14 364
46 648 90
439
1 491 23 92
899
3 475 21 93
1 188
5 207 19
Totalt

16. 6. Imputation data for quarterly providers
Activity
Data for a whole quarter
No data
Share 50
18 824
25 010 43 51
45 327
61 634 42 52
25 932
45 878 36 55
10 446
22 643 32 60
11 642
16 343 61
777
1 363 62
206
861 19 63
6 497
9 605 40 64
582
972 37 70
19 679
28 218 41 71
2 307
3 487 72
8 338
16 165 34 73
1 476
1 019 59 74
28 987
55 247 90
714
857 45 92
1 814
3 844 93
1 995
2 929
Totalt 39

17. 7. Study concerning the first quarter year 2009
The objective of the study was to evaluate differences between estimates based only on observed VAT-data and estimates based on VAT-data where imputation has been used for a number of enterprises due to timeliness.
VAT-data on all four quarters year 2008 can be observed
At this time point, VAT-data for all enterprises regarding the first quarter year 2009 can be observed

18. 7. Enterprises in the frame population by VAT-return period first quarter year 2009

19. 7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting monthly and need for imputation
Due to timeliness the third month often is missing in the VAT-data for a specific quarter (about 80% of the monthly enterprises)
To produce quarterly estimates using VAT- data values for the third month has to be imputed for the majority of the small monthly enterprises
Current Ratio Imputation (by industry)

20. 7. Current Ratio imputation
The current ratio imputation works as follows:
The imputed turnover value for enterprise k month three:
enterprise k:s turnover value month one
enterprise k:s turnover value month two
enterprise k:s turnover value month three

21. 7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting quarterly and need for imputation
Due to timeliness values for the specific quarter often is missing in the VAT-data (about 82% of the quarterly enterprises)
Two imputation methods were used:
-Current Ratio Imputation (by industry)
-Imputation by average in strata (based on industry and size)

22. 7. Imputation of quarterly enterprises
The monthly enterprises imputed by CR are regarded as observed values when the quarterly enterprises is CR or AV imputed
For enterprises with an observed value Q , use VAT-data for all four quarters year 2008 in the CR imputation
Impute missing quarterly enterprises with the turnover average in stratum, based on observed and imputed values for monthly enterprises Q1 2009

23. 7. Proportion of total turnover, observed and imputed due to timeliness

24. 7. Observed values vs imputed values by CR imputation and imputation by average in strata, AV