1. CLIMATE CHANGE
Data Driven Analysis

2. Earth’s Climate Has Undergone Many Changes
Warm
Cold
Icy
Not icy
How do they know past climates? Recent – data records
Historic records – further into human history: droughts, floods, etc
Paleoclimates – deduce from ‘proxies’: Ice cores, tree rings, coral growth, sediment deposits (CaCO3)

3. Annual temps vary, but the trend is clear: a Warming Atmosphere

4. Increasing Rates Of Warming
Compare line slope

5. Temperature is correlated with CO2
Year-by-year atmospheric CO2

6. Fossil fuel use > CO2 byproduct > Warming
Temperature
Fossil Fuel use
Lagged means 25 time lag (time for atmospheric build up)

7. Compounding factor: permafrost methane
Methane released as soil thaws
from the atmosphere. Methane's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2
Impact of CH4 is 20x that of CO2

8. Factoring in all predicted greenhouse
gas concentrations
Same trend
Different models
The UN Climate Change Report (1/10)

9. well, not quite

11. RAMIFICATIONS OF WARMING

12. Warming Oceans 3 studies, same pattern Bionteractive video

13. Warming Land
Glaciers receding
Earlier snow melt

14. Reduced ice cover in the arctic
Extent of ice cover
year
Ted Ed (20 min)

15. Warmer water leads to rising sea levels
Past 300 years
20th century

16. Ocean Acidification
CO2 + H2O -> carbonic acid

17. Ecosystem Change 100ybp: found at altitude 7800’ and higher
ex: expansion of desert ecosystems
Alpine chipmunk Neotamias alpinus
Grinnell resurvey project: a century of change
Butterflies expanding ranges northward
Birds migrating earlier
100ybp: found at altitude 7800’ and higher
Today: 9800’ and higher At this rate, no more habitat in ~40 years

18. Increased Extinctions
Golden Toad
Incilius periglenes
>native to Costa Rica
>not seen since 1989
Grinnell resurvey project
a century of change
The sixth mass extinction of life on Earth

20. Despite the evidence… • International consensus 174 nations
• Extensive studies
12,000 papers video recap
• Exhaustive peer review
90,000 comments
• Scientific consensus
1250 scientists 97:3 video
mute at 0:48 & 1:06
skeptical –> raise questions
deny –> refuse
The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.
Update on Orestes paper:
John Oliver swears, do not start at the start!

21. ..not all are convinced • There is not a social consensus
• Skeptics question evidence
• Deniers refuse to consider
evidence
• Although there is a scientific consensus
based on research evidence
• There is not a social consensus
based on each persons culture,
politics, worldview, ideology
U.S. Senator J. Imhofe, Oklahoma
Environmental and Public Works Committee
Author: The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future.
The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.
Why Imhofe? Senator James (Jim) Inhofe is the senior senator from Oklahoma and a member of the Republican Party. He is a ranking majority member and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. [63], [3]
According to OpenSecrets.org, Inhofe has received almost $2 million in political contributions from the coal and oil industry. Koch Industries is Inhofe's top contributor, having contributed at least $105,150 since Murray Energy is the second-largest, at over $90,000. [44]
In 2003, the Natural Resources Defense Council repoted Inhofe has scored zero with the League of Conservation Voters since 1997 and “was the only senator to oppose Everglades restoration, and once compared the Environmental Protection Agency to the Gestapo.” [5]
Inhofe has made regular speeches opposing global warming, and has consistently voted in favor of big oil companies on oil-related bills. [6]
“A deliberately fabricated falsehood made to masquerade as truth.”

22. And the public

23. *All Have Costs! * * * Options Opposing actions take action no action
global warming is real
not warming
*All Have Costs!
mitigate adapt
reduced effects * *
continued CO2 output
more effects
Opposing claims
new tech
new industries
no change
(ignore evidence) *

24. Demographic trends

25. Juliana v US

26. http://www. livescience. com/common/media/video/player. php
(6 min)
(6min)
Look for more at How Stuff Works
Sci Amer Frontiers
(22 min)
Minute Earth