1. Statistical Development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT (STA)
The
The IMF’s Support to
Statistical Development in Africa
Eighth Meeting of the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa
United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Session III – Making Partner Support More Effective and Efficient
October 2, 2018
Claudia Dziobek
Division Chief, Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department (STA) #

2. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Global statistics capacity development (CD) agenda
IMF capacity development in statistics
Different delivery modes in statistics
Results based management in statistics
Statistical development in Africa
Looking Forward
“Data has gained prominence as a vital building block for making sound policy. Without reliable and timely economic data, we would be wandering in the dark, making decisions on the basis of anecdotes, gut feelings, or worse.”
Managing Director Christine Lagarde
2014 IMF Statistical Forum
FUND
data for decisions

3. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Drivers of statistics CD
Global statistics capacity development agenda
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Drivers of statistics CD
Recognition of policy relevance of data
2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development
Global push for evidence-based policy-making
New user demands, incl. outside governments
IMF surveillance
230+ SDG indicators
Data challenges for two-thirds of indicators
Methodological advances and greater awareness of measurement challenges
Digital economy
“Data Revolution”
Transparency and accountability
Focus on dissemination
Engagement beyond compilers
Newly emerging
Big Data CD
GLOBAL
Statistics
Development of national statistical systems
Data gaps and quality concerns revealed by crises (e.g., 2007/08)
Compilation focus
Compliance with international standards (e.g. SNA 2008, BPM6)
Traditional

4. IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Capacity Development (CD)
IMF capacity development in statistics
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
STA’s Standard-Setting Role on Statistical Methodologies Underpins Its CD
GFSM 2014
Screaming Chickens
Guide
Jumping Cows
Remittances Compilation Guide
BPM 6
Manual on Export & Import Prices
Public Sector Debt Guide
Monetary
& Financial
Others
External Sector
Government Finance Statistics
Prices
Quarterly National Accounts Manual
CPI
Manual
PPI
GDDS
SDDS
Plus
FSI Compilatio Guide
MFSM
Handbook on Securities
National
Accounts
(SNA 2008)
Methodology
Data & Surveillance
Capacity Development (CD)
Provide global leadership on macroeconomic and financial statistics to advance the international statistical agenda and contribute to carrying out the IMF’s mandate and core functions
Gather and analyze statistics underpinning IMF surveillance and use of IMF resources; address data gaps and quality deficiencies; and promote best practices in dissemination of statistics
Provide technical assistance and training to member countries, strengthening their capabilities to produce and disseminate consistent and comparable macroeconomic and financial statistics

5. Different delivery modes in statistics
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
CD Final Outcome
Technical Assistance (TA) Mission(s)
Country-owned Work Plan
Workshop
The work plan for selected countries with CD needs includes:
Baseline of existing practices;
Decision on mode of CD delivery;
Assessment of synergies with other IMF CD vehicles and other CD providers;
Measures to address implementation risks;
Endorsement by country authorities.
Reform proposals to improve source data, methodology, compilation, and dissemination;
Hands-on training, using authorities own data;
Assessment of progress made vis-à-vis country log frame milestones.
Diagnostic:
Assessment of need and capacity of country authorities.
Training:
Rationale;
Source data;
Methodology;
Compilation methods
Peer learning:
Exchange on best practices among countries with similar challenges.
FUND
data for decisions

6. Results based management in statistics
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
STA CD Results Orientation: Accountability on Activities
The RBM System provides:
Greater clarity of purpose for CD activities
Better tracking of progress toward results from CD
Understanding of what has worked or not worked in the past
Introducing more transparency and accountability on CD activities
Promoting global best practices.
RBM includes all IMF and partner-financed STA projects

7. IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT D4D’s Strategic Objective
Results based management in statistics
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Strategic logframe
The country logframe includes:
Baselines developed from the country diagnostics
Targeted outcomes of the CD activities, agreed with the country authorities
Milestones to measure progress towards the outcomes
D4D’s Strategic Objective
Assist LLMICs in strengthening national statistical systems to cope with a challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to capacity development.
Impact outcome
Indicators
Data Source
More and better data are available for decision-makers and analysts, with the ultimate objective of better informing economic policies and supporting monitoring of the SDGs.
Improvements in indicators across all macroeconomic and financial statistical domains.
Dissemination on National Summary Data Pages (NSDPs), IMF and/or World Bank databases, and/or country web sites; IMF’s Article IV and program reports; follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities.
Objective Module 1: Policy-makers and the public have access to more and better data in three main statistical domains (real, external, and fiscal and debt statistics) to support policy analysis and formulation, detect economic risks and vulnerabilities, and enhance transparency and accountability.
Real Sector Statistics:
Objective 1: The residential property price index (RPPI) provides information about price trends in real estate which are important to assess risks in banks’ balance sheets, as evidenced in numerous cases of banking sectors crises after real estate bubbles burst.
Strengthened compilation and dissemination of RPPIs, including by developing/improving the wider statistical infrastructure, source data, serviceability and metadata.
At the end of the five-year D4D period:
for the around one-tenth of eligible countries that already have a basic RPPI: Compilation and dissemination will be brought in line with guidelines and best practices outlined in the Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices; and staff capacity will be increased through CD on further improving source data, compilation methods, and dissemination;
for the around one-eighth of eligible countries that are currently working on the compilation of a RPPI: Staff capacity will be increased through CD on further improving source data, compilation methods, and dissemination;
for the around four-fifths of eligible countries where no RPPI is available but economic analysis requires better real estate price data: Regional workshops will provide training on data needs and methodology, complemented by follow-up TA missions if there is sufficient progress in basic data collection.
Follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities. These may include assessments of capacity undertaken during bilateral TA missions or through the uses of workshop “before and after” quizzes/exams.
Dissemination on NSDPs, IMF databases, and/or country web sites.
Country logframe

8. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Delivery of capacity development in Africa by statistical topic, FY
(in FTEs)
87% Technical Assistance
13% Training

9. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT

10. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Partnership
Regional Technical Assistance Center (RTAC) and Regional Training Centers (RTCs)
South Sudan TTF
FUND
data for decisions
Current beneficiary countries of statistics

11. Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Delivery of capacity development in Africa by funding, FY
(in FTEs)
RTACs Coverage
AFW
AFC
AFE
AFS
AW2
METAC
Trust Funds

12. Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Relevance of Statistics CD: Impact on Analysis and Policy-Making
GDP, 2013 estimates, $US billions
- Effect of rebasing
National Accounts Statistics
Why Does Rebasing GDP Matter?
Better perspective on the size and structure of the entire economy.
Better handle on a country’s fiscal position, debt sustainability, tax potential, money demand.
Key input in private sector decision making.
Determinant of a country’s access to financial markets.
Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
East African Community GFS Institutional Coverage
Before and After TA
Budgetary CG
Extrabudgetary CG
Social Security Funds
Local Government
Baseline
GFSM86
Current Status
GFSM14
Broader institutional coverage allows to:
Fully capture the role of the government and public sector in an economy.
Assess a country's fiscal position and policy stance, and macroeconomic impact of the government's policies.
Assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risk.
Improve debt sustainability analysis.
Foster government accountability and transparency.
Enhance cross-country comparability.

13. IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Statistical development in Africa
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Testimonials from beneficiary country authorities
“In the last five years, Zambia through the National Accounts unit of the Central Statistical Office has managed to benchmark the National Accounts Statistics and rebase GDP from 1994 to The Statistical office has also started producing quarterly GDP and has implemented most of the recommendations contained in the 2008 System of National Accounts. The National Accounts unit recently published the 2010 Supply and Use tables. These new developments and improvements in National Accounts compilation have been made possible with the much-cherished Technical assistance from the IMF AFRICTAC South office which the office has been receiving since 2011.”
AFRITAC South RSS project
“The outcome of the one week IMF TA mission was very rewarding as it assisted CBN in the - review of FSIs in accordance with FSIs Compilation Guide; construction of FSIs metadata; and dissemination of revised FSIs as well as the metadata on the IMF's website. More specifically, the mission streamlined our core set and expanded our encouraged set in line with available data; even as the framework for cross border consolidation was created. The TA also exposed a good number of STD staff and other relevant departments to FSIs computational basics.”
IMF-DFID project on FSIs in Africa
Goodson Sinyenga
Head of the Economics and Financial Statistics, Central Statistical
Office of Zambia
Atoi Ngozi Victor
Head of the Statistics Department
Central Bank of Nigeria

14. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Statistical development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Preconditions for success:
Country ownership.
Structure capacity development to country needs, priorities and absorption capacity.
Coordinate capacity development:
E.g. Assistance with the development of source data needs to precede assistance in the compilation of statistics.
Coordinate among capacity development providers
E.g. Norway’s work in Malawi supporting the compilation of annual national accounts estimates based on the SUT framework and providing funds for the annual  surveys to ensure that relevant data sets were available for annual national accounts compilation.

15. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Looking Forward
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Introduction of the Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund and
Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF)
FUND
data for decisions

16. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Looking Forward
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
STA is rolling out multi-partner vehicles to sustain CD: FSSF & D4D Fund
Data dissemination
Targeted CD, for example:
Regional harmonization
Source data
Other priorities
Advanced economies
Field-based Regional Technical
Assistance Centers
Provide CD on “bread-and-butter” statistics to establish strong methodological foundation.
Aim to fill gaps in coverage
Financial Sector Stability Fund
FSSF
(LLMICs)
Financial Soundness Indicators
Monetary and Financial Statistics
International Investment Position
Government Finance Statistics -
Balance Sheets
Bilateral & IMF’s own resources
D4D Fund
Real Sector
Government Finance
External Sector
Financial Access Survey (FAS)
Online learning
Statistical Information Management
Policy-relevant
high-frequency data and source data
Topical gaps and expanded regional coverage
FUND
data for decisions

17. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Looking Forward
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Data for Decisions Fund Overview (D4D)
Objective: Putting more and better data in the hands of decision makers to enhance evidence-based macroeconomic policies and support achievement of the sustainable development goals.
Focus: Strengthen national statistical systems to cope with a more challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to CD.
Conceptual Foundation: Based on a needs assessment that considered:
Demand from countries
Policy relevance
Identified data gaps and data quality concerns
Complementarity of CD provided out of the IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Centers (RTACs) and bilateral CD projects
The need for flexibility to react to a country’s capacity and readiness to accept CD
FUND
data for decisions
Target countries: Mainly Low- and lower middle-income countries world-wide, including fragile states
Duration: Five years (FY )

18. Looking Forward
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
STA CD Under the D4D Fund: Focus on LLMICs and Fragile States
Beneficiary Countries
Low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICCs)
LLMICCs and Fragile States

19. STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Balance Sheet Approach
Looking Forward
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF)
FSI Workstream
Balance Sheet Approach
Workstream
Help countries assess financial sector structure, stability, and vulnerabilities, undertake stress testing, and develop macro- prudential policies.
Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling and disseminating FSIs consistent with int’l standards.
Publish FSIs in IMF’s FSI database (http// for use in SDG monitoring.
Help countries develop and utilize a reporting framework to compile critical balance sheet data for the financial, external and government sectors to generate BSA matrices.
Use matrices to identify cross- border and cross-sector financial linkages that could pose risks and vulnerabilities in the financial sector.
Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling MFS, GFS, and ESS source data for use in BSA.

20. Statistical Development in Africa
STATISTICS DEPARTMENT (STA)
The IMF’s Support to
Statistical Development in Africa
Eighth Meeting of the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa
United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Session III – Making Partner Support More Effective and Efficient
October 2, 2018
The
Claudia Dziobek
Division Chief, Real Sector Division
IMF Statistics Department (STA) #