1. Analysis of Small Aircraft As a Transportation Mode Samuel M. Dollyhigh Swales Aerospace, Hampton, VA Presented at: Oshkosh, WI July 29 - August 3, 2003 Transportation Systems Analysis & Assessment (TSAA)

2. Outline Methods and Assumptions Business Trip Potential (Year 2000 Numbers) of New Generation of Affordable Small Jets -Corporate Operation -Air Taxi * Sensitivity to Fare and Passenger Load Personal Trip Potential (Year 2000 Numbers) of Single Engine Piston Aircraft -Cirrus 20R * Sensitivity to Utilization and Trip Fixed Costs - $80K SEP *Sensitivity to Utilization and Block Speed Concluding Remarks

3. Methods and Assumptions Modified the Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tooldeveloped by LMI Trips from the 1995 American Travel Survey were adjusted for 2000 population increase and income Automobile,commercial scheduled air, and on demand air are the mode choices –Mode choice is determined by lowest trip cost –Trip cost= cash cost of trip +value of time –Business trip value of time based on individual earnings tables from Census Bureau data –Personal trips value of time based on household income tables from Census Bureau data –Cash trip costs includes cost of trip transportation plus trip fixed costs such as airport parking and transportation cost at destination Numbers presented are for additional trips diverted above the year 2000 GA traffic Assumes that small aircraft transportation system will become as reliable and safe as the other modes

11. Figure 5- Cirrus 20R @400 Flights/Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1 Person Trips (millions) No Trip Fixed Costs Trip Fixed Costs: $200

14. Concluding Remarks Large Potential Demand for Affordable Small Jet Air Taxi - 50-100% increase in number of Business Jets over 2000 Fleet -Potential to Divert 1% or more from Scheduled Commercial Air Low Utilization Limits Single Engine Piston Aircraft as an affordable Personal Travel Mode Full Report Available as NASA/CR-2002-211927 Study Funded by: NASA Langley Research Center NAS1-00135