1. Corn Situation and Outlook
Industry Outlook Conference
Chicago, Illinois
Oct. 18, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
148.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,433
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 27 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,576
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,803
4,700
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,020
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,395
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,053
12,710
Ending Stocks
866
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

4. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 10/14/2011

7. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

8. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 10 10

11. Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

12. Ethanol Blending Advantage

13. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

14. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

15. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

16. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

17. Iowa Crop Margins

18. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

19. States with Room to Grow
Million acres
North Dakota
3.821
South Dakota
0.849
Arkansas
0.570
Missouri
0.517
Illinois
0.474
Georgia
0.385
Texas
0.283
Pennsylvania
0.238
Louisiana
0.195
Iowa
0.162

20. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: $5.18
2011/12: USDA: $6.70
Futures (as of 10/14/11): $6.26
2012/13: Futures (as of 10/14/11): $5.84

21. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: