1. Crop Price Outlook Lynnville Ag Marketing Club Meeting Grinnell, Iowa
September 1, 2009
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5
86.0
87.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
159.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,101
12,761
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,720
Imports 20 15
Total Supply
14,362
13,740
14,496
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,250
5,300
Ethanol
3,049
3,650
4,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,270
1,275
Exports
2,437
1,850
2,100
Total Use
12,737
12,020
12,875
Ending Stocks
1,621
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.05
3.50
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,959
3,199
Beg. Stocks
574
205
110
Imports 10 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,179
3,320
Crush
1,803
1,660
1,670
Seed & Residual 93
154
174
Exports
1,159
1,265
Total Use
3,056
3,069
3,109
Ending Stocks
210
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
10.00
9.40
Source: USDA 3 3

4. Fall Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

5. Historical Freeze Data
Source: Dr. Elwynn Taylor, ISU

6. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices
Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish;
USDA-NASS

7. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

8. 2009 Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

9. Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

10. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2008
3.57
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64 10 10

11. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

12. Corn

13. Corn

14. Seasonal Pricing Patterns
Source: USDA, NASS,
Monthly Price Data

15. Corn Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04
Source: CBOT, 9/1/09

16. Soybean Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80
Source: CBOT, 9/1/09

17. Iowa Crop Basis

18. Decision Chart Futures Increase Basis Contract
Sell Cash and Buy Futures
Call Options
Minimum Price Contract, Fixed Basis
Store & Wait to Price
Delayed Price Contract
Minimum Price Contract, Variable Basis
Basis
Weakens
Expected
Change
Basis
Strengthens
Hedge
Hedge to Arrive
Put Options
Cash Sale
Forward Contract
Futures
Decrease

19. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn
Source: CBOT

20. Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 31, 2009

21. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets
Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year
Most important ag. statistics: Crop yield estimates, feed demand
USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.50 for corn and $9.40 for soybeans
Current futures Friday: Corn $3.10, Soy $ Tuesday: Corn $3.00, Soy $9.07

22. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: