1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Sept. 3, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,686
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,772
Imports 29
160 36 30
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,477
15,488
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,355
1,375
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,705
13,775
Ending Stocks
1,713
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
84.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,916
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
240
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,186
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,845
1,860
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
181
132
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,825
1,725
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,851
3,717
Ending Stocks
470
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Early Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Early Soy Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

12. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

14. Current Corn Futures
3.68
3.42
Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

15. Current Soybean Futures
8.25
8.22
Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

16. 2015/16 Crop Margins

17. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

18. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

19. Iowa Corn Costs Overall 75% increase 88% 26% 88% 46%
Source: AgDM A1-21

20. Iowa Soybean Costs Overall 69% increase 88% 14% 56% 72%
Source: AgDM A1-21

21. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

22. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Rain made grain
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(9/3/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.42
$3.68
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.15
$8.25
$8.22

23. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: