1. Crop Market Outlook Pro-Ag Meetings Greenfield and Harlan, Iowa
Nov. 8, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,706
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 75
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,514
11,769
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,562
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,421
1,350
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,526
11,150
Ending Stocks
619
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.80
These are the latest numbers from USDA. Record production and demand is gone and was replaced by record prices. All sectors of demand took major cuts. Ending stocks are projected to be at pipeline levels.
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
37.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,860
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,050
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,540
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 92
115
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,360
1,265
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
2,920
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
15.25
For soybeans, a tight market continues to get tighter. USDA ratcheted down demand for the new crop to hold 2012/13 ending stocks at 115 million bushels. As with corn, all sectors of demand took a big cut.
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
But dry conditions have weakened the crops, as the crop conditions show. The USDA update reflects the scale of yield loss as they have taken over 40 bushels from corn and nearly 8 bushels from soybeans.
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Prices
Prices have risen and fallen with the temperatures.

6. Projected Corn Yields
These are based on conditions around Sept. 1.

7. Objective Corn Yield Data
USDA crop adjusters found grain weights well below those for the last 8 years.
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Projected Soybean Yields
These are based on conditions around Sept. 1.

9. Objective Soybean Yield Data
USDA crop adjusters found pod numbers well below those for the last 8 years.
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Projected Corn Yields Yields (bu/acre) 2011 2012 % Change
United States
147.2
122
-17%
Iowa
172
140
-19%
Illinois
157 98
-38%
Nebraska
160
142
-11%
Minnesota
156
168 8%
Indiana
146
100
-32%
South Dakota
132 94
-29%
Wisconsin
127
Ohio
158
123
-22%
Kansas
107 91
-15%
Missouri
114 75
-34%

11. Projected Soybean Yields
Yields (bu/acre)
2011
2012
% Change
United States
41.9
37.8
-10%
Iowa
51.5 43
-17%
Illinois
47.5 39
-18%
Minnesota
10%
Nebraska 54 41
-24%
Indiana
45.5
Ohio 48
Missouri
36.5 30
South Dakota 37 28
Arkansas
38.5 1%
North Dakota 29 34
17%

12. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
Global corn production took a hit last month, with Canada and Europe seeing reductions in potential corn production.
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Soybean Production
Soybean prices have spurred on increased soybean plantings worldwide. South America will lead the charge.
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 14 14

15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Higher feed costs have led to lower meat production projections.
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Negative margins at some ethanol plants have dragged down production.

19. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

20. Current Corn Futures
6.87
5.99
5.63
Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

21. Current Soybean Futures
14.11
12.81
12.38
Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

22. Early Prices for 2013 Crops
2013 crop prices are still strong to entice acreage to remain in production.

23. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

24. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

25. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(11/6/12)
2013/14
Corn
$7.80
$6.87
$5.99
Soybeans
$15.25
$14.11
$12.81

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: