1. Making Money When the Going Gets Tough

2. How Deep Is the River?

3. January Omens Worst first five trading days in history
1,395 new lows on NYSE (Jan. 20)
SPX and many other indexes broke
August lows
“Best three months” a loss

4. Recession Watch Industrial production already below
prior recession thresholds
Jobless claims creeping up, recently just
below 300,000 “red zone”
Blowout in credit spreads

5. Distress for Junk Bonds
Four-year high!

6. 3 Key Mental Habits Safety first!
Avoid complacency (bullish or bearish)
Look for an edge

7. Play Defense Now Balanced portfolio (bonds vs. equities)
Adequate cash reserve
Trim vulnerable stocks and funds
Emphasize dividend-rich names

8. Aggressive Asset Protection
Put options
Short sales
Bear funds

9. Inverse ETFs ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SH)
ProShares Short S&P Russell 2000
(NYSE: RWM)
ProShares Short MSCI Emerging
Markets (NYSE: EUM)

10. When to Hedge Wait for rebound to area of breakdown (SPX 1970-2020)
VIX below 18
Divergence: SPX versus HYG or USO

11. Gold Expensive vs. Oil

12. Bear Beaters
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
Nestle (OTC: NSRGY)

13. Fat Dividends
Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG)
MetLife (NYSE: MET)

14. Worth a Bite $205 billion of cash 11% free-cash-flow yield
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
$205 billion of cash
11% free-cash-flow yield
A “Microsoft moment”?

15. Mutual Fund Gem Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index
VHDYX or VYM (exchange-traded)
Low expenses; 3.3% yield
Outperformed 98% of peers (5 years)

16. Finally, Remember…
“It always
stops
raining.”
J.P.
Morgan

17. Your Turn to Ask