1. Paratransit Update April 2019
As requested today we will provide an update on Paratransit, specifically the ridership and costs associated with the E-Hail program.
Between 2017 and 2018, Paratransit saw unprecedented growth in conjunction with the introduction of E-Hail services which provide our customers with greater flexibility.
Today we will present some data on how we have seen increased customer demand, and discuss the impact of this new demand on the overall program
Trip growth has persisted for more than a year and current trend suggests we have yet to peak.
There has been a modal shift from our traditional carrier service to taxis and For-Hire Vehicles (or FHV’s), which, while cheaper on a per trip cost basis, has not resulted in a commensurate reduction in aggregate costs due to growth in trips and the necessary fixed costs associated with carrier service
An important point is that additional time is needed to evaluate the financial impact of delivering on-demand E-Hail services beyond the current pilot. 

2. Increased transparency through new customer metrics
Public dashboard launched in January 2018
Including many metrics related to:
Ridership
On-time performance
Provider no-shows
Ride time
Customer complaints
Call center
We launched our customer dashboard in January 2018 to provide transparency to our customers and the public on service and performance.
With the introduction of the new E-Hail services we’ve been continuing to monitor performance closely and listen to the feedback from our customers.

3. We are watching customer metrics very closely
Pickup On-Time Performance
Primary carrier and broker pickup on-time performance are both over the goal of 92%
Drop-off on-time performance has also increased over the last year
As we transition to the enhanced broker service we expect some short- term impacts to on-time performance
Goal
Drop-Off On-Time Performance on Appointment Trips
On-time performance, for example, is a key indicator to measure the quality of service for both primary carriers and brokers.
Over the last year both pick-up and drop-off on-time performance has improved.
While we have been transitioning to the new enhanced broker service at the beginning of this year, we are seeing some impacts to service during this time – but expect it to be short-term, until the broker service fully ramps up.
Goal

4. Paratransit experienced growth over the last two years
Change
2017
2018
Change
Total registrants 8%
149,656
153,575 3%
Active registrants 2%
59,769
62,725 5%
Average trips per active user
-5%
103
113
10%
Annual completed trips
-3%
6,129,219
7,092,476
16%
Going into the ridership and cost discussion, I want to start with an overview of the numbers to provide some context.
As you can see from this chart, between 2011 and 2016, the number of registrants (total and active) and the number of trips remained fairly flat.
Since the introduction of E-Hail in 2017, the total number of registrants and active registrants has continued to remain flat (at approximately 150,000 registrants and 60,000 active registrants) but the number of trips those registrants are taking has spiked markedly, experiencing double digit growth. This resulted in an increase of nearly 1M trips or 16% increase in one year.
Average weekday ridership peaked at 31,458 trips in 2018, up 17% from 26,780 in 2016 before the implementation of E-Hail.

5. Total trips have increased substantially since the introduction of E-Hail
Trips by service type (millions)
Trips increased 16% in one year with the introduction of e-hail
Share of trips on Carrier declined from 73% to 50% since the introduction of E-Hail
90% of E-Hail trips were booked through advanced reservation, the remaining 10% were on-demand trips
Of 2.1 million E-Hail trips in 2018: 1 million are new demand and 1.1 million represent shift from carrier and broker
+16%
7.1
+1%
6.1
6.1
2.1 (30%)
1.6 (27%)
1.7 (28%)
1.4 (20%)
Beginning in October 2017, recognizing that our customers wanted greater flexibility and more travel options, we introduced two new services:
“Advanced reservation E-Hail,” which offered AAR customers the ability to request a taxi or FHV when booking a standard paratransit trip, 1-2 days ahead; and
“On-demand E-Hail” -- a pilot program opened to the first 1,200 customers that signed up – which allows participants to request a trip at any time, using their smart phone or by calling the vendor directly.
The popularity of these two new services together has led to a huge growth in trips. Recently, as discussed at this committee last month, we have been transitioning advanced reservation E-Hail to our new enhanced broker services, which offers comparable service to advanced reservation E-Hail with additional benefits.
While much of the discussion today will focus on on-demand E-Hail, it is important to note that the majority of total E-Hail trips shown here are from the advanced reservation pilot, which was open to all registrants. 
This chart also shows the mode shift away from the carrier service. Specifically, as a result of our proactive efforts to increase the availability of taxi and for FHV’s, the share of trips taken on carriers declined from 73% in 2016 to 50% in 2018.
4.4 (73%)
4.1 (66%)
3.5 (50%)
2016
2017
2018
E-Hail
Broker/Voucher/Taxi
Carrier

6. Increased trip demand due to E-Hail has driven up costs
Annual cost (millions)
Costs grew 13% in 2018, a $62 million increase
On-demand: $8 million
Advance reservation: $54 million
Per trip costs by mode in 2018:
Carrier: $86
Broker/Voucher/Taxi: $29
E-hail: $37
Lower cost per trip of E-Hail is offset by overall increase in trips
Fixed cost of carrier service limits the amount of cost savings
Carrier services are needed to ensure a zero-denial rate as per federal mandate
+13%
+2%
537
467
475
While trips have shifted to lower cost modes, overall program costs have significantly increased after many years of no to minimal cost growth.
E-Hail trips cost on average less than half of carrier trips (or approximately $37 versus $86). However, even with the shift of trips from carrier to E-Hail, costs rose by 13% ($62M) between 2017 and This was a significant and unanticipated increase during what continues to be a very challenging fiscal environment for the MTA.
There are a two issues at play here:
New demand: E-Hail doesn’t just shift trips, it generates new trips as well. Of the two million E-Hail trips in 2017, only about half were shifted from other modes, while the rest were new trips generating additional costs. 
Cost savings of moving trips away from carrier were reinvested back into improved schedules, which provided customers better carrier service but more costly
It is important to note that carrier service is needed and is the backbone of all Paratransit services thought the United States. Taxis and FHV’s do not accommodate all our customers, and we must maintain a zero trip denial rate as per Federal mandate. In addition, Taxis and FHV’s currently do not provide enough wheelchair accessible vehicles and have citywide geographic coverage issues.
Looking ahead we are looking to find the right balance of dedicated carrier fleet and Taxi/FHV to accommodate all our customers in a cost effective manner.
107
109
114
2016
2017
2018
E-Hail
Carrier
Broker/Voucher/Taxi
Insurance /Call Center/Admin/Other

7. On-demand E-Hail is growing even faster than advance reservation E-Hail
Average total monthly trips per customer by customer type
Advance reservation is used by 25,000 customers each month, compared with 1,200 in the on- demand pilot
Average on-demand monthly trips increased by two-thirds, four times the rate of increase in advance reservation E- Hail
On-demand Participants switched to on-demand E-Hail for the majority of their travel
Upper limit of on-demand usage is not yet clear
So how do we go about projecting future costs. This chart shows the trip growth of three separate populations of Paratransit customers. The customers enrolled in the on-demand pilot, those customers who have availed themselves of the advanced reservation e-hail program and all other.
While many more customers, approximately 26,000, are using advanced reservation E-Hail on a monthly basis because they enjoy the benefits of taxis (including direct trips instead of shared rides), the on-demand customers in the pilot have a significantly greater increase in trip-taking. And, we don’t yet know where that will max out.
As you can see from this chart, the number of on-demand trips has not yet leveled, as compared to the relatively flat growth in advanced reservation e-hail trips. This is something we need to continue to evaluate in order to expand this program in the future.
One specific point of interest we need to better understand is how much of the increase in trip demand is due to passenger preference for taxi, and how much is flexibility of traveling on-demand.
Average monthly trips per customer
2017 1st Half
2018
2nd Half
Change
Percent Change
On-demand 18 30 12
67%
Advance reservation E-Hail 13 15 2
16%
Other active 7
-0.1
-1%

8. Key takeaways
Given high demand in the current pilot, which is continuing to grow, expanding on-demand E-Hail to the entire customer base would potentially cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and will require a new recurring funding source
In rightsizing the carrier fleet, we must consider taxi/FHV customer service and reliability, wheelchair capacity, and the zero denial mandate
On-demand E-Hail services have been offered as a supplement to ADA mandated services in other cities as a subsidized model
One thing we know for sure is that program costs are growing and a new recurring funding source will be needed to integrate on-demand E-Hail further.
Looking ahead as we continue to migrate trips off of carrier services we look to right size and reduce the size of our dedicated fleet.
In looking around the country, other cities have offered on-demand E-Hail as a subsidized model, outside the federal mandates of traditional paratransit shared ride services. We continue to examine not only the program we are offering but are looking to best practices and lessons learned from our sister agencies as we think about what’s next.