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JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES
GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010 BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics, UNITED KINGDOM
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UK STATISTICAL OFFICES
England and Wales Office for National Statistics (ONS) Scotland General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) GROS, Edinburgh
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Population statistics since 1801
John Rickman, first census taker in 1801
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Population statistics since 1801
Current data on the population Counts sex, age, marital status, etc Flows births, deaths, gross migration Structures households, families Characteristics ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc Geography NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2 plus Output Areas John Rickman, first census taker in 1801
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Components of population change, UK mid-1998 to mid-2008
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Alternative approaches
Traditional field enumeration Self-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden Combined (any mix of field enumeration, surveys, registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland Rolling Census - France Long-form/short form - USA
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Beyond 2011 Project High level aims
Feasibility of using integrated data sources Alternative data sources
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Beyond 2011 Work programme
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Risks and issues Undermine response to the 2011 Census
No population register Data quality Maintenance Public attitudes Cross-government support Funding
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Census Well established Rich data Flexible Small populations Accurate Checkable A known quantity But Snapshot in time Infrequent Expensive Burdensome Dependent on public response
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Surveys Rich data Reactive Low cost Frequent But Sample only Estimates Still some burden Declining response rates
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Administrative registers Minimal cost Less burdensome Continuous High granularity But Non statistical Variable coverage Variable quality Not all census topics covered Inflexible Non-comparable No control Legal issues
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Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine
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Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine Administrative data is used for population estimates
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Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine Administrative data is used for population estimates A survey or rolling census is used
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Conclusions Early days Options to be reviewed and assessed
No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet Strong requirement for a culture change
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Culture change Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !
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Culture change Thank you
Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !
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