1. THEORY OF CHANGE VS. LOGICAL FRAMEWORK
ELDTRAINING
THEORY OF CHANGE VS. LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

2. Theory of Change

3. Theory of Change Series of cause and effect relationships
Systematic way of identifying steps needed to achieve a outcomes
Helps understand how program interventions contribute to program goals
Specifies components of the program and their relationship to each other
Visually conveys beliefs about the programs strategy / makes assumptions explicit
Builds a commonly understood vision of long-term goals, how they will be reached, and how to measure progress along the way
Provides a unifying framework for strategic decision-making, communicating, and reporting

4. Theory of Change Vs. Logical Framework
Debate in the international development community about the best way to describe how programs lead to results.
One approach has been to use a Logical Framework, which most donors now require.
Another approach is to create a Theory of Change.
There is no official definition of a Theory of Change or how it differs from a Logical Framework.
Both have the same general purpose – to describe how your program will lead to results, and to help you think critically about this.
(Some people) even say a Theory of Change is essentially the same thing as a Logical Framework, it’s just that over time people have forgotten how to do Logical Frameworks properly.

5. Theory of Change Vs. Logical Framework
In practice there are some differences in how they are used. 
At the simplest level, a Theory of Change shows the big, messy “real world” picture, with all the possible pathways leading to change, and why you think they lead to change (do you have evidence, or is it an assumption?)
There is often a trade-off between the explanatory and persuasive aspects of the underlying logic.
A Logical Framework is like zooming in on the specific pathway that your program deals with and creating a neat, orderly structure for it. This makes it easier for you and the donor to monitor program implementation.

6. Theory of Change in Practice
Gives the big picture, including issues related to the environment or context that you can’t control.
Shows all the different pathways that might lead to change, even if those pathways are not related to your program.
Describes how and why you think change happens.
Could be used to complete the sentence “if we do X  then Y will change because…”.
Is presented as a diagram with narrative text.
The diagram is flexible and doesn’t have a particular format – it could include cyclical processes, feedback loops, one box could lead to multiple other boxes, different shapes could be used, etc.
Describes why you think one box will lead to another box (e.g. if you think increased knowledge will lead to behaviour change, is that an assumption or do you have evidence to show it is the case?).
Is mainly used as a tool for program design and evaluation.

7. Theory of Change Vs. Logical Framework

8. Context/ Situational Analysis
Clarify the Program Goal
Define program intervention
Map the Causal Pathway
Identify SMART indicators
Explicate assumptions
Convert to logical framework

13. Logical Framework in Practice
Gives a detailed description of the program showing how the program activities will lead to the immediate outputs, and how these will lead to the outcomes and goal (the terminology used varies by organisation).
Could be used to complete the sentence “we plan to do X  which will give Y result”.
Is normally shown as a matrix, called a Log Frame. It can also be shown as a flow chart, which is sometimes called a logic model.
Is linear, which means that all activities lead to outputs which lead to outcomes and the goal – there are no cyclical processes or feedback loops.
Includes space for risks and assumptions, although these are usually only basic. Doesn’t include evidence for why you think one thing will lead to another.
Is mainly used as a tool for monitoring.

14. NARRATIVE SUMMARY INDICATORS MOV ASSUMPTIONS
GOAL / IMPACT
Improved health status of Internally Displaced People at Camp A
Number of cases of waterborne diseases reduced by 50%
Camp health post reports
PURPOSE / OUTCOME
Immediate improvement of living conditions of 5000 Internally Displaced People in Camp A
Within 2 weeks, all IDPs have access to:
– sufficient safe water
– hygienic latrines
– safe accommodation
Observation report
Community meeting report
No unanticipated outbreaks / epidemics
Local government continues to provide sufficient nutrition / medical care
OUTPUTS
1. Increased availability and accessibility of safe water for IDPs
2. Increased availability and accessibility of safe latrines
3. Occupancy of temporary shelters does not exceed 10 people per tent
4. IDPs aware of how to reduce risk of disease
1.1 Each IDP has access to 3L of safe water per day within 7 days
1.2 5 x communal water tanks with capacity 2000L are functional within 1st week
x functioning temporary latrines operational within 10 days
x tents distributed to 100 hh within first week
3.2 maximum occupancy of 90% of tents is 10 persons
IDPs aware of how to reduce health risks from waterborne diseases, sanitary practices and overcrowding
1. Distribution reports
2. Observation
3. Observation / progress reports
4. FGD / community meeting
Number of IDPs does not significantly increase
IDPs maintain hygienic standards of latrines
ACTIVITIES
1.1 Distributing 500m3 water (water truck)
1.2 Borehole water in one point
1.3 Set up communal water tanks
1.4 Distribute buckets (capacity 20 lt.)
2.1 Constructing temporary latrines
3.1 Distributing tents
3.2 Advocacy and coordination with local government
4.1 Conducting hygiene programme for IDPs
Inputs
Total Cost: GBP 18,650
Direct Cost: 14,650
Water Trucking – 3600
Borehole Water – 550
Purchase / installing 5 water tanks – 200
Purchase / distribution 1000 water buckets capacity 20L – 2,500
Constructing 20 temporary latrines – 2,500
Conducting hygiene promotion – 300
Providing and distributing 100 tents – 5000
Indirect Cost: GBP 4000
(Transport, staffing, indirect operational costs)
Local government gives full access to the camp

15. Theory of Change: the 7 Steps
Context/ Situational Analysis
Clarify the Program Goal
Define program intervention
Map the Causal Pathway
Identify SMART indicators
Explicate assumptions
Convert to logical framework
Situation analysis – Specifying the context
Clarifying the program goal
Designing the program
Mapping the causal pathway
Designing SMART indicators
Making assumptions explicit
Converting to Logical Framework