1. OBJECTIVE
Students will analyze demographic transition models, population pyramids, and epidemiological stages in order to predict a nation’s development.

2. Replacement Fertility
refers to a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman (in late stage 3/stage 4 countries), which equates to the average number of children each woman is required to have for a population to replace itself in the long term, without migration

3. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Low Growth
Stage 2 : High Growth
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
Stage 4: Low Growth
Stage 5: Population Decline

4. Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

5. Stage 1: Low Growth
Huge variation in CDR and CBR making the NIR essentially zero
Hunter gatherer population
First Agricultural Revolution
War and disease
No such country exists today

6. Case Study: England Stage 1
1066 – Normans invade
Population 1 million
By 1750, population = 6 million
Unpredictable Population:
1250 = 4 million
1350 = 2 million

7. Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

8. Stage 2: High Growth
After 1750, worlds population grows 10 x faster than any other time
Industrial Revolution
Early countries that entered stage two
Medical Revolution
Most recent countries entering stage 2

9. Stage 2: England ( )
1750 – CBR AND CDR were both 40 per 1,000.
1800, CBR was 34 but the CDR = 20.
1770 = 6 million
1880 = 30 million
NIR over period = 1.4 %

10. Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

11. Stage 3 : Moderate Growth
CBR rapidly declines
Why?
Choice
Social custom
Urban Life
CDR continues to decline
NIR becomes more modest

12. Stage 3: England Moderate Growth 1880s -1970
CBR – 33 per 1000
CDR – 19 per 1000
1970
CBR – 15 per 1000
CDR – 12 per 1000
Average NIR over the period of 0.7 per year with an overall increase in pop from 26 – 49 million

13. Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

14. Stage 4 : Low Growth
CBR and CDR declines to the point that NIR approaches zero
ZERO POPULATION GROWTH
CBR might still be higher than CDR because females die before reaching stage of fertility
These countries tend to have
stronger economies
higher levels of education
better healthcare
higher proportion of working women
Fertility rate hovering around replacement rate

15. Stage 4 : England England = currently in stage 4
Changes in CBR is due to the maturation of society not the change in personal decisions of women
Growth attributed largely to immigration

16. Demographic Transition in England
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

17. Stage 5: Population Decline
Countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2.1 children)
Elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

18. Demographic Transition

19. Criticism of the DTM…
Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LDC’s in a trading system that protects the industries of MDC’s.
The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a function of increased wealth and industrialization.

20. Criticism of the DTM…
The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized European experience;
Model is too rigid in assuming all countries proceed from stage 1-5; it ignores variables and exceptions (eg. War, political turmoil);

21. Population Pyramids
Demonstrates two major components of a country’s population
(1) population by gender
(2) population by age (5 year intervals)

22. Developing Nation

23. Developed Nation

24. Population Pyramids
Each Demographic Stage has a distinctive population structure
percentage of population by age group
Distribution of males and females

25. Population Pyramids Both can be displayed on a population pyramid
Percentage of each age group in 5 year increments
Divided by male and females along the horizontal

26. Shape of the Pyramid Determined primarily by the CBR
Stage 2 = large base of the pyramid

27. Shape of the Pyramid Determined primarily by the CBR
Stage 4&5 = wider top with a transition toward a rectangle

28. Sex Ratio Number of men per 100 women
Slightly more males than females born
Males have higher death rates
Women start to outnumber men at age 40

29. Dependency Ratio Dependents on the society
Primarily those too old and young to work
Divide the country into three groups
0-14 years
15-64 years
64 years and older

30. Dependency Ratio Developing Countries: 1:1 ratio
Larger percentage of young dependents
Strains ability to provide adequate schools, hospitals, and day care

31. Dependency Ratio Developed Countries:
Need adequate income and medical care after retirement
Have established means of providing those things
Economic strain to maintain them based on a smaller tax base

32. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION
(1) Stage of Pestilence and Famine (2) Stage of Receding Pandemic (3) Stage of Degenerative Diseases (4) Stage of Delayed Degenerative Diseases (5) Stage of Reemergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases

33. (1) Stage of pestilence and famine
Infectious and parasitic diseases = primary cause of human deaths
General lack of
modern medical understanding of transmission of diseases
manner of preventing/treating the spread of disease.
i.e. plague

34. (2) Stage of receding pandemic
Pandemic  disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population
In this stage, improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine reduced the amount of pandemics but could not eliminate them
Birth of the modern medicine investigation
i.e. cholera

35. (3) Stage of degenerative and human created diseases
Decrease in the amount of deaths from infectious diseases
Chronic diseases associated with aging
cardiovascular diseases
cancer
Previously categorized as natural causes
Associated with the spread of the medical revolution, especially in stage 3 locations.

36. (4) Stage of delayed degenerative diseases
Medical research focused on treating (but not necessarily curing) degenerative diseases.

37. (5) Reemergence of infectious and parasitic disease
Three reasons for emergence of stage 5
evolution/mutation of diseases
Resistance to modern medicine
continued poverty in many areas of the world
Infectious diseases continues to exist in many parts of the world despite attempts to eradicate them
improved travel and interaction between those areas of poverty.