1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Annie’s Project 10th Anniversary Meeting
Ames, Iowa
Sept. 18, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
155.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,843
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
661
Imports 8 28 29
162 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,931
14,530
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,546
4,475
5,100
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,665
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,395
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
735
1,225
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,270
12,675
Ending Stocks
1,855
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
41.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,149
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 40
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,224
3,289
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,690
1,655
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 95
115
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,315
1,370
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,140
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Crop Rating

5. Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Crop Rating

8. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22. Current Corn Futures
4.61
4.56
4.22
Source: CME Group, 9/17/2013

23. Current Soybean Futures
12.65
11.14
10.81
Source: CME Group, 9/17/2013

24. New Crop Prices

25. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

26. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

27. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

28. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

29. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Can the new crop beat the summer heat?
Then can it beat the freeze?
New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt
Corn demand rebounding?
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(9/18/13)
Corn
$6.90
$4.80
$4.22
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.65

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: