1. Risk Environment for Agriculture
Ag. Credit School
Ames, Iowa
June 4, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

3. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

4. Iowa Farms and Farmland
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

5. Productivity
Source: USDA-ERS

6. Change in Input Structure
Source: USDA-ERS

7. Iowa Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Iowa Corn Costs
Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

9. Iowa Soybean Costs
Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

10. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

11. Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

12. Soybean Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

13. U.S. Meat Production
Source: USDA-ERS

14. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

15. World Meat Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD

16. World Veg. Oil Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD

17. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2007 Value)
United States
20.6
98%
100%
102%
104%
107%
Canada
2.3
96%
Mexico
2.1
105%
110%
114%
129%
138%
Europe
15.3
92%
88%
89%
90%
Japan
5.0
84%
86%
82%
China
7.6
132%
153%
178%
201%
222%
India
2.8
139%
154%
168%
Africa
3.1
113%
116%
126%
135%
148%
Central and South America
6.0
112%
117%
125%
133%
World
86.1
103%
121%
128%
Source: DOE-EIA

18. Crop Insurance One of many risk management strategies
Traditionally set up to protect farmers in times of low crop yields
Now offers coverage for low prices
Available on over 100 commodities

19. Causes of Loss for Iowa Corn, 1948-2010

20. Causes of Loss for Iowa Soy, 1955-2010

21. Federal Crop Insurance: Total Acres Insured

22. Iowa Corn Acres Insured in 2013
95% of all Iowa
corn acres are
insured

23. Iowa Soy Acres Insured in 2013
95% of all Iowa
soybean acres
are insured

24. 2013 Corn and Soy Coverage Levels

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: