1. Evaluating alternative anthrax production processes using a generic PSM: A worked example
Yolanda Gil
Jim Blythe
Jihie Kim
Surya Ramachandran
USC/ISI

2. Overview
Hypothesis:
Problem-solving knowledge can be constructed by instantiating, assembling and modifying components called problem-solving methods that embody often-used abstractions of problem-solving knowledge
Example: evaluating the wet and dry anthrax processes to determine which one Irak is more likely to follow.
Use a domain-independent PSM for process evaluation with some specific knowledge about BW processes as the starting point.

3. Evaluate dry anthrax production
Top-level evaluation: an agent will select the model that best matches its objectives and is feasible.
Begin with steps in process model and “feasibility” evaluation in PSM.

4. Domain-independent plan evaluation knowledge in PSM (Blythe & Gil KAW 99)
Estimate process feasibility
requires
Step
Resource
factor
actor
Have or can acquire needed resources
material
subtypes
equipment
produces
...
Effect
Linear Resource
Estimate amount of linear resource required
Estimate ease of acquiring resource
Temporal Resource
Is resource dual-use?
Discrete Resource
Estimate whether discrete resource required

5. Link process model information to the PSM
Estimate process feasibility
Have or can acquire needed resources
factor
...
requires
Step
Resource
material
actor
equipment
Process model
Sprayer hard to acauire
Safety level
- air filtration
- mask
- vaccination
Ferment
Mill
Dry
Store
Dispense
Required for worker safety
Spray
Distill
Air filtration equipment
requires
Vacuum
Sprayer
Dual-use

6. Linking process model information for matching objectives
Estimate how process matches objectives
produces
Step
Effect
factor
requires
matches
Check that end state matches goal
Resource
Goal
...
Agent in environment
produces
effect
Ferment
Mill
Dry
Store
Dispense
Spray
Distill
Vacuum

7. Apply problem-solving knowledge to the wet and dry anthrax models
Wet-anthrax model requires the following equipment:
Environmental storage unit (dual use)
Aerosol dispersion system (dual use)
Dry-anthrax model requires the following equipment:
Air filtration system (dual use)
Spray dryer
Personnel trained in operating spray dryer
Dry-anthrax model requires more specialized equipment, but Irak would prefer it since it is feasible and better matches the goal of battlefield dispersion.